唐丽彬 刘胜尧 韩翔洋 董泽亮 朱自平

摘    要：以河北省宽城县1982—2019年日气象数据为基础，利用Penman-Monteinl方程对该区域近38年来潜在蒸散量的变化规律进行计算并分析。结果表明，宽城县潜在蒸散量的年变化和各季变化均呈增加趋势，除夏季外，年和其他各季的潜在蒸散量增加趋势明显;潜在蒸散量的年、季变化均发生了时间序列变化上的突变，除夏季外，年际和其他季节的突变显著;潜在蒸散量的年变化存在8～12 a的周期性变化规律，夏季潜在蒸散量的变化存在8～10 a的周期性变化规律，其他季节潜在蒸散量的周期性变化不明显。河北省宽城县潜在蒸散量的增加将进一步增加作物对灌溉量的需求，这需要引起河北省宽城县农业管理人员对合理灌溉的进一步重视。

关键词：潜在蒸散量;趋势变化;Mann-Kendall突变检验;Morlet小波分析

中图分类号：S161       文献标识码：A      DOI 编码：10.3969/j.issn.1006-6500.2021.02.017

Variation Characteristics of Potential Evapotranspiration in Kuancheng County， Hebei Province from 1982 to 2019

TANG Libin1， LIU Shengyao2， HAN Xiangyang3， DONG Zeliang3， ZHU Ziping4

（1.Kuancheng Manchu Autonomous County Meteorological Bureau， Chengde， Hebei 067600， China;2. Agricultural Information and Economic Research Institute， Hebei Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences，Shijiazhuang， Hebei 050051， China;3.Xinji Meteorological Bureau， Xinji， Hebei 052360， China;4. Langfang Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences， Langfang， Hebei 065000， China）

Abstract： According to the daily meteorological data from 1982 to 2019 in Kuancheng County， Hebei Province， the variation of potential evapotranspiration in the region in recent 38 years were calculated and analyzed through Penman-Monteinl equation. The results showed that the annual and seasonal variations of potential evapotranspiration in Kuancheng County had an increasing trend， the variations were obvious except summer. The annual and seasonal variations of potential evapotranspiration had abrupt changes in time series， and the abrupt changes were significant except for summer. The annual variation of potential evapotranspiration showed a periodic variation pattern of 8-12 years， and that of potential evapotranspiration in summer showed a periodic variation pattern of 8-10 years， while the periodic variation pattern of potential evapotranspiration in other seasons was not obvious. The increase of potential evapotranspiration in Kuancheng County of Hebei Province will further increase the demand of crop irrigation amount， which requires the agricultural management personnel to pay more attention to rational irrigation.

Key words： potential evapotranspiration;trend change;Mann-Kendalltest;Morlet wavelet analysis

潛在蒸散量是指在供水条件充足下的区域蒸散能力[1]。目前，该项指标已被广泛应用于农田灌溉、作物需水量等水资源管理的研究[2-3]中，对农业生产的管理具有重要的指导意义。在潜在蒸散量模型的研究中，毛飞等[4]利用3种潜在蒸散模型在泰安和西峰两地做了对比分析，认为世界粮农组织（FAO）推荐的彭曼-蒙蒂斯（Penman- Monteith）模型具有很好的适用性。高歌等[5]采用世界粮农组织推荐的彭曼-蒙蒂斯公式，对中国十大流域近45年的潜在蒸散量变化趋势进行了分析，认为近45年中除松花江流域外，全国绝大多数流域的年和四季的潜在蒸散量均呈现减少趋势。……