王茹琳 王闫利 陈东东 郭翔 李庆 王明田

摘要 ：本研究應用生态位软件MaxEnt和地理信息系统软件ArcGIS预测柑橘木虱在西南地区的潜在地理分布范围，筛选影响柑橘木虱分布的关键变量。结果表明柑橘木虱在西南地区高适生区主要位于西藏东南部、四川中东部、重庆大部、贵州大部和云南中北部，总面积为52.03万km2，占西南地区总面积的23.89%。影响柑橘木虱分布的关键变量为最冷月最低温度、最冷季度平均温度、最湿季度降水量、最暖季度降水量、最暖季度平均温度和最暖月最高温度。本研究不仅模拟了柑橘木虱在西南地区的潜在地理分布，更为该虫的分布与环境变量之间关系的研究提供了理论参考。

关键词 ：柑橘木虱; 西南地区; MaxEnt模型; 潜在地理分布

中图分类号：

S 431.2文献标识码： A

DOI： 10.16688/j.zwbh.2019592

Analysis of the potential distribution of the Asian citrus psyllid， Diaphorina citri Kuwayama in Southwest China using the MaxEnt model

WANG Rulin1，2，3， WANG Yanli2， CHEN Dongdong4， GUO Xiang4， LI Qing3， WANG Mingtian5，6*

（1. Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorological， China Meteorology Administration， Heavy Rain and

DroughtFlood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province， Chengdu 610072， China;

2. Sichuan Provincial Rural Economic Information Center， Chengdu 610072， China; 3. College of Agronomy，

Sichuan Agricultural University， Chengdu 611130， China; 4. Sichuan Provincial Agrometeorological Center，

Chengdu 610072， China; 5. Sichuan Meteorological Observatory， Chengdu 610072， China; 6. WaterSaving

Agriculture in Southern Hill Area Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province， Chengdu 610066， China）

Abstract ：In this study， the ecological niche modeling software MaxEnt （the maximum entropy model） was combined with ArcGIS （geographic information system） to predict the potential geographic distribution of Diaphorina citri in China. Key environmental factors and the appropriate ranges of their values were also investigated. The results showed that the highly suitable areas of D.citri in Southwest China were mainly located in the Southeast Tibet，the middleeast of Sichuan， most of Chongqing， most of Guizhou and the northcentral part of Yunnan. The total area of the highly suitable area was 52.03×104km2， accounting for 23.89% of the total area of the five provinces.The key variables affecting the distribution of D.citri were the minimum temperature of coldest month， mean temperature of coldest quarter， precipitation of wettest quarter， precipitation of warmest quarter， mean temperature of warmest quarter， maximum temperature of warmest month. The results of this study not only established the suitable distribution areas of D.citri in Southwest China， but also would provide theoretical references for the research of the relationships between the presence of D.citri and environmental variables.

Key words ：Diaphorina citri; Southwest China; MaxEnt model; potential distribution

柑橘在我国热带及亚热带地区种植广泛，是一种重要的经济作物。西南地区是我国柑橘的重要产区，据统计，2017年四川、重庆、云南和贵州四省（市）柑橘种植面积和产量为64.73万hm2和781万t，分别占全国的25.02%和20.46%[1]。西南地区由于其独特的地理特点和气候特征，五省（市、自治区）种植品种差异明显：四川以晚熟品种为主，2017年底种植面积约占全国晚熟柑橘总面积的60%;重庆市38个区县中有36个生产柑橘，早中晚熟品种比例为25∶34∶41，栽培面积达21.33万 hm2，年产量超过300万t;云南各市（州）均有种植柑橘，以特早熟品种为主，是我国的特色柑橘生产基地之一;柑橘产业在贵州农业经济中地位显著，品种以甜橙和宽皮柑橘为主，种植面积和年产量均居全省果类之首;西藏自治区柑橘种植区，主要集中在雅鲁藏布江河谷地带，年产量约为0.07 万t。……