时雨莹　周亮广

摘 要：塘坝灌溉是当前江淮丘陵区农业灌溉的主要方式，研究江淮丘陵塘坝灌区的抗旱能力，对于促进灌区塘坝水利工程建设及农业产业结构调整具有重要的参考意义。该研究选取江淮丘陵2个典型样区，以高分辨率遥感影像图、塘坝容积、有效降雨量等数据为基础，在不同降雨频率下对研究样区的土地利用类型、水量供需以及塘坝抗旱能力进行了分析。结果表明：土地利用类型中塘坝面积均在3%～5%;水田面积占比亦相当，约为17%，但旱地面积差距较大，样区1占比达50%以上，约为样区2的5倍。样区1水资源供需比远小于1，水资源供需不平衡，而样区2水资源供需达到平衡。2个样区塘坝的抗旱能力分别为50.51%、93.65%，反映了不同土地利用结构下塘坝的抗旱能力明显差异;根据降水概率进行农业生产结构调整，将有助于调控江淮丘陵灌区农业水资源供需平衡。

关键词：抗旱能力评价;水量供需平衡;降雨频率;江淮丘陵灌区

中图分类号 S274文献标识码 A文章编号 1007-7731（2021）03-0131-04

Evaluation on Drought Resistance of Pond in Jianghuai Hilly Irrigation Area based on Water Supply and Demand Balance

SHI Yuying et al.

（School of Geographic Information and Tourism， Chuzhou University， Chuzhou 239000， China）

Abstract： Pond irrigation is the main way of agricultural irrigation in Jianghuai Hilly Area，the study on the drought resistance capacity of Pond irrigation area in Jianghuai Hilly Area is of great significance to the construction of Pond water conservancy project and the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure. Based on the high-resolution remote sensing image， the volume of the pond and the effective rainfall， the land use type， water supply and demand， and the drought resistance ability of the pond were analyzed under different rainfall frequency. The results show that the area of pond and dam is 3%～5% and that of paddy field is about 17%， but the area of dry land is quite different. The proportion of sample area 1 is more than 50%， about 5 times of sample area 2. The supply-demand ratio of water resources in sample area 1 is far less than 1， the supply-demand of water resources is unbalanced， and the supply-demand of water resources in sample area 2 is balanced. The drought resistance capacity of Pond in the two areas is 50.51% and 93.65% respectively， which reflects that the drought resistance capacity of Pond is significantly different under different land use structure; according to the probability of precipitation， the adjustment of agricultural production structure will help to regulate the balance of agricultural water supply and demand in the Jianghuai hilly irrigation area.

Key words： Drought resistance evaluation; Rainfall frequency; Water supply and Demand balance; Jianghuai Hilly irrigation area

江淮丘陵區地处南北气候过渡带，温光适宜，雨热同期，年平均降水量900～1000mm，降水量相对充足，但地区降水时空分布不均匀，季节分化明显。区内地形破碎、土壤贫瘠，降水难以长时间在地表蓄积，从而形成了区域易旱现象;地下水储藏深、水量少不易开发，农田灌溉和生活用水主要依靠塘坝系统蓄水。小型塘坝作为区域的主要灌溉水源，是解决区域干旱的重要的水利设施，对塘坝系统抗旱能力进行评估，可以为岭区抗旱及生产提供重要的参考。

当前，国内外学者对江淮丘陵区干旱问题日益关注。例如，蒋尚明、金菊良通过对江淮丘陵区自然、经济以及社会活动等方面的分析，探讨了该区干旱缺水的原因[1];中国气象学会安徽省分会学术年会干旱小组通过对江淮丘陵区主要地形地貌，区域耕地面积以及过去近13年的干旱受灾情况的统计，对该区干旱情况进行了探讨研究[2]。曹升乐等以水资源的供需差值为旱情综合评价的基础，提出了2种旱情综合评价方法[3]。Tabari构建了气候变化不确定性驱动的干旱频率分析模型，并应用于加拿大Okanagan盆地夏季极端干旱频率分析[4]。俄罗斯、澳大利亚等国也进行了干旱灾难的天气监测及诊断研究[5-6]。