周韬 刘珊 王超 张雪

摘要 基于行为与预期视角，构建了农业转移人口进程定居意愿影响因素的分析框架，通过对河南省3市1 280个农业转业人口的问卷调查，采用二元Logisitic模型实证研究了反映农业转业人口主观意愿的相关因素对其进城定居意愿的影响。结果表明：受教育程度、城市务工时间和幸福感对其进城定居意愿具有显著影响，收入水平、劳动合同、社保、职业等因素影响不显著。提出了提升心理预期;发挥市场机制对农村资源要素的配置;从制度层面把控关键要素（人、业、钱、房等）推行市民化;发展农业转移人口的选择能力;打造公平的竞争平台等政策建议。

关键词 农业转移人口;进城定居;市民化;村民化

中图分类号 S-9 文献标识码 A 文章编号 0517-6611（2020）14-0216-05

doi：10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2020.14.060

Abstract Based on the behavior and expectation perspective， the paper constructs the analysis framework of the factors affecting the resettlement willingness of the agricultural transfer population. By the questionnaire survey of 1 280 agricultural transfer populations in 3 cities of Henan Province， using the binary Logisitic model，the factors affecting the willingness of gricultural transfer population to settle in cities were studied empirically.The results showed that the education level， urban working time and happiness have a significant influence on the willingness to settle in the city. The income level， labor contract， social security， occupation and other factors are not significant. Policy recommendations were put forward， such as promoting psychological expectations;giving play to the market mechanism to allocate rural resource elements;from the institutional level， control the key elements （people， industry， money， housing， etc.） to promote citizenship;developing the ability of agricultural transfer population selection;creating a fair competition platform.

Key words Agricultural transfer population;Settlement in cities;Citizenization;Villagers

党的十九大报告提出：“以城市群为主体构建大中小城市和小城镇协调发展的城镇格局，加快农业转移人口进城定居”。“建立健全城乡融合发展体制机制和政策体系，实施乡村振兴战略，培养造就一支懂农业、爱农村、爱农民的‘三农工作队伍”。“中国特色社会主义进入新时代，我国社会主要矛盾已经转化为人民日益增长的美好生活需要和不平衡不充分的发展之间的矛盾”。我国《国家新型城镇化规划（2014—2020）》明确提出以人为核心的城镇化和市民化，实现“十三五”期间，我国户籍人口城镇化率年均提高1百分点以上。李克强总理在2018年的政府工作报告中要求“农业转移人口的意愿和获得感、幸福感决定着各项政策的实施效果，要实现人的城镇化和农业转移人口市民化的目标，农民有意愿从乡村迁至城镇定居是基本前提”。……