杨强

摘要：【目的】分析我国农业供给侧结构性改革的效果及农业供给结构的作用，为农业现代化发展提供理论依据，也为“十四五”规划提供决策支持。【方法】基于2000—2017年我国26个省份（不包含北京、天津、上海、重庆和西藏）的面板数据，将农业供给结构改革分为农业生产要素供给结构、农业人力资本供给结构、農业科技供给结构、农业制度供给结构及政府管理供给结构5个方面，构建面板模型对我国农业供给侧结构性改革的成效进行分析。【结果】从生产要素来看，耕地面积、农户固定资产投资和乡村劳动力的供给系数为正值且显著（P<0.01，下同），需要通过人力资本、农业制度和政府管理来进一步提升供给效率。从供给结构来看，人力资本供给的系数为负值且显著，农村人力资本还需要进一步提高，出现人力资本投资增加与农村空心化、有效劳动力减少的情况。农业科技供给系数为负值且部分显著，农业科技在西部地区比较欠缺，农业科技在供给侧中的作用未得到有效发挥。农业制度供给系数为正值且显著，农业制度降低了农业市场交易的成本，资源和要素能自由流动，从而释放农村和农业的发展活力，而这些又进一步推动农业的制度供给，促使农民收入增加。从空间上来看，政府管理供给和农业制度供给在东部地区更为明显，在中部、西部地区还需要改进。【建议】应进一步提高我国劳动力素质，多形式、多地点、多方面地开展劳动力再培训，推进农民职业化发展;加强农业技能型人才培养，扩大农业综合开发投入中的科技部分;在发挥市场的调节作用的基础上，完善不同区域实施不同农业发展战略。

关键词： 农业;供给侧结构性改革;面板数据;农民增收;农业增效

中图分类号： S-01;F320.2                         文献标志码： A 文章编号：2095-1191（2020）10-2588-09

Agricultural supply structure in structural reform of agricultural supply side in China

YANG qiang

（Kaifeng University， Kaifeng， Henan  475003， China）

Abstract：【Objective】The effects of agricultural supply side structural reform and function of agricultural structure were analyzed to provide reference for agricultural modernization development and the 14th Five-year Plan. 【Method】The reform of agricultural supply structure mainly included five aspects：the supply structure of agricultural production factors， the supply structure of agricultural human capital， the supply structure of agricultural science and technology， the supply structure of agricultural system and the supply structure of government management. Based on the provincial panel data of 26 provinces（except Beijing，Tianjin，Shanghai，Chongqing and Tibet） from 2000 to 2017，this paper constructed a panel model to analyze the effect of Chinas agricultural supply side structural reform. 【Result】From the perspective of production factors， the supply coefficient of arable land area， rural households fixed asset investment and rural labor force were positive and significant（P<0.01，the same below）， and the supply efficiency must be further improved through human capital， agricultural system， and government management. From the perspective of the supply structure， the coefficient of human capital supply was negative and significant. Rural human capital needed to be further improved， and there has been an increase in human capital investment， rural hollowing out， and a reduction in effective labor. The coefficient of agricultural technology supply was negative and partially significant. Agricultural technology was relatively lacking in the western region， and the role of agricultural technology on the supply side has not been effectively brought into play. The agricultural system supply coefficient was positive and significant. The agricultural system reduced the cost of agricultural market transactions， and resources and elements could flow freely， thereby releasing the vitality of rural and agricultural development， which further promoted agricultural system supply， increased the income of farmers. From a spatial point of view， the supply of government management and agricultural systems was more obvious in the eastern region， and needed to be improved in the central and western regions. 【Suggestion】China should improve the quality of labor force， carry out labor retraining in various forms， places and aspects， and promote the development of farmers profe-ssionalization; strengthen the cultivation of agricultural skilled personnel， expand the scientific and technological part of agricultural comprehensive development investment; improve the implementation of different agricultural development strategies in different regions on the basis of playing the regulatory role of the market.

Key words： agriculture; supply side structural reform; panel data; increase of farmers income; agricultural efficiency

Foundation item： National Natural Science Foundation of China（71663043）; Humanities and Social Sciences Ge-neral Project of Henan Department of Education（2017-ZZJH-350）

0 引言

【研究意义】改革开放以来，伴随着我国经济的持续高速增长，在向市场经济转型的过程中一直存在结构、技术、效率三大供给侧问题（洪银兴，2016），因此，2015年中央提出供给侧结构性改革，主要是以供给侧为改革突破口，在制度、机制和技术3个层面推进结构性改革（冯志峰，2016）。我国农业的发展也面临结构性矛盾，其根本原因是农业供给侧的体制机制障碍（中国社会科学院城乡发展一体化智库，2017）。2016—2020年连续五年的中央一号文件均把深化农业供给侧结构性改革作为当前农业农村工作的主线。农业供给侧结构性改革不仅包括农业结构调整（姜长云和杜志雄，2017），還包括土地制度改革、结构调整、粮食价格体制和补贴制度改革（孔……