庞冬　何秉宇

摘要：依据相关文献和乌鲁木齐市的实际情况构建了区域人口-经济-环境耦合协调度指标体系，运用耦合协调度模型及障碍度模型分析了乌鲁木齐市近10年的人口、经济、环境耦合协调度变化特征及其主要影响因子。结果表明，2005—2015年乌鲁木齐市人口-经济-环境系统的耦合状态呈现持续好转态势，耦合度类别依次为轻度失调衰退类、中度失调衰退类、轻度失调衰退类、濒临耦合协调类、勉强耦合协调类；耦合协调度类型由最初的经济滞后型发展为生态环境滞后型、人口滞后型。影响乌鲁木齐人口-经济-环境系统协调发展的主要因子为环境空气质量优良天数、工业废水排放量、城镇污水集中处理率、第三产业比重、社会消费品零售总额和进出口总额。

关键词：人口；经济；环境；耦合度；耦合协调度；障碍度；乌鲁木齐

中图分类号：F127 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2018）09-0116-05

DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2018.09.028

Analysis on the Coordinated Development and Obstacle Degree of Population- Economy-Environment Coupling in Urumqi City

PANG Dong1，HE Bing-yu1，2

（1.Institute of Resources and Environmental Science，Xinjiang University，Urumqi 830046，China；

2.Laboratory of Wisdom City and Environmental Modeling，Urumqi 830046，China）

Abstract： Based on related literature and the actual situation of Urumqi，the regional coordination index system of population-economy-environment coupling in Urumqi was constructed，and the trend of the population-economy-ecology coupled coordination degree in Urumqi in recent 10 years and the main influence factors were analyzed by using the coupled coordination degree model and obstacle degree model. The results showed that，the coupling of population-economy-environmental system in Urumqi from 2005 to 2015 had a trend of continuous improvement，and the coupling degree was mild disorder and recession，moderate disorder and decline，mild disorder and recession，near coupled coordination，and barely coupled coordination respectively，and the coupled coordination indicated 3 types，from the initial economic lag type to the ecological environment lag type，population lag type. The main factors influencing the coordinated development of Urumqi population-economy-environment system were：excellent rate of environmental air quality，industrial wastewater discharge，centralized treatment rate of urban sewage，proportion of tertiary industry，total retail sales of social consumer goods and total import and export volume.

Key words： population；economics；environment；coupling degree；coupled coordination degree；obstacle degree；Urumqi city

人口、經济、资源是当今世界社会经济发展的重要课题。区域人口、经济、生态环境系统之间相互促进又相互制约，其是否能协调发展以及如何使之协调发展是关系到区域能否实现可持续发展的重大问题，具有重要的现实意义。同时，生态文明建设和“两型社会”建设的基础也需要区域人口、经济、环境系统协调发展的支撑。人口、经济和环境协调发展问题已经逐渐引起世界范围内的关注。

1987年联合国世界环境与发展委员会提出了关于人与自然的和谐发展思想，为区域人口-经济-环境协调发展理论奠定了基础[1]。……