朱岩 葛春林 周鹏

摘 要：以回合系统制胜规律为研究对象，揭示竞技排球比赛竞赛过程的制胜元素并探索制胜规律，以期为高水平排球队科学训练提供理论依据。采用文献资料法、理论分析法、技术统计法等研究方法，在系统论的基础上，建立排球比赛回合系统结构理论模型，并通过中国女排里约奥运会比赛技术统计数据验证模型的真实性和有效性。结果：前5回合是决定胜负的关键回合；第1回合与胜负的相关性最为显著；中国女排比赛制胜的关键在于失误送分少，拦网得分多。建议：发球接发球、一攻和拦防对抗放在训练首位；减少失误送分；全面提高第一回合得分能力。

关键词：中国女排；系统论；回合系统；制胜规律

中图分类号：G 804.82 学科代码：040302 文献标识码：A

Abstract： Taking the winning rule of round system as the research object，the authors reveal the winning elements in competitive volleyball competition and explore the law of winning，so as to provide a theoretical basis for scientific training of high level volleyball teams.This paper，adopting the methods of literature review，theoretical analysis，statistics，mathematical statistics，basing on the system theory，established a volleyball game theory turn system structure model，and proved the authenticity and validity of China women's volleyball statistics model in Rio Olympics Games.The result shows that the first 5 rounds are the decisive rounds to decide the winning and losing goals；the first round is the most significant correlation between winning and losing，and the key of Chinese women's volleyball team winning the matches is to make fewer turnovers and score more blocks. Suggestion： to put service and return of service， attack and anti-blocking as the priority in training；to reduce mistakes in competitions；and to improve scoring ability in the first round.

Keywords： Chinese women's volleyball team；system theory；round system；rule of winning

中国女排时隔12年重夺里约奥运会比赛冠军，弘扬了女排精神，也标志着我国排球运动水平重回世界巅峰，而其赢得整个比赛的客观规律更值得研究。通过观察中国女排奥运会比赛发现，要认识当今世界高水平竞技排球女子比赛的制胜规律，已经不能只从静态的、平面的技、战术分析来提炼，而应通过整体的、全面的、联系的、动态的视角进行分析。本文从系统论出发，对排球竞赛的过程进行细分，从本质上揭示现今竞技排球赢得比赛的客观规律，从而与以往的技、战术分析联系起来，使其更接近制胜规律。以中国女排里约奥运会8场比赛竞赛过程的回合技术统计为样本，验证系统划分排球竞赛过程的真实性和有效性。……