摘 要：采用综合评价法对参加里约奥运会男子篮球各队的进攻、防守及攻防综合能力进行分档，分析各队的优势与不足，并结合北京、伦敦奥运会参赛各队的比赛成绩和综合实力，探析当前世界男篮实力格局的变化。研究表明：里约奥运会男篮各队实力分为4档，美国队、西班牙队和澳大利亚队的综合实力最强，澳大利亚队实力提升较大，冲入了第1档。纵观3届奥运会，美国队实力最强，西班牙队、塞尔维亚队等欧洲强队和澳大利亚队的实力在不断提升，与美国队相接近；南美球队的实力不断下滑，非洲球队和亚洲球队的实力排在末列。先进的篮球后备人才培养体系和世界顶级的篮球联赛不仅为欧美各国培养出大批的优秀球员，而且还促进着世界各篮球风格的融合、引领着篮球运动发展的趋势。中国篮球难以跟上世界篮球的发展，与世界强队的实力差距也越来越大。

关 键 词：世界男子篮球实力格局；奥运会；秩和比法

中图分类号：G841 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1006-7116（2018）06-0127-05

Abstract： By using the comprehensive evaluation method， the author classified the offense ability， defense ability and comprehensive offense and defense ability of various mens basketball teams participating in the Rio Olympic Games， analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of various teams， and probed into the changing of the strength structure of modern world mens basketball by combining the competition results and comprehensive strength of various teams participating in the Beijing and London Olympic Games. This research indicates that the strength of various mens basketball teams in the Rio Olympic Games was classified into 4 classes. The comprehensive strength of team USA， team Spain and team Australia was the strongest， especially the strength of team Australia increased significantly， getting into the first class. In the three Olympic Games， the strength of team USA was always the strongest. The strength of European strong teams such as team Spain and team Serbia， as well as team Australia， was increasing constantly， close to team USA； the strength of South American basketball teams was declining constantly， the strength of African and Asian basketball teams was listed the last. Advanced basketball reserve talent cultivation systems and world topnotch basketball leagues not only cultivated a lot of excellent players for various European countries， but also promoted the fusion of various basketball styles in the world， and leaded the trend of basketball development. It is difficult for the Chinese basketball team to catch up with world basketball development， and its strength difference from world strong teams is becoming greater and greater.

Key words： strength structure of world mens basketball；Olympics Games；rank sum ratio method

在2016年里約奥运会中，虽然美国男篮依然雄踞榜首，但欧洲新贵塞尔维亚勇闯四强给人留下了深刻印象。本研究追溯近3届奥运会上男篮实力的变化，并运用统计学的综合评价法对世界各强队进行分档，以研究当今世界篮坛的新格局、新趋势以及世界篮球技战术发展特征。

1 研究方法

秩和比法（Rank-sum ratio）是以行或列秩次的平均值为标准来反应不同计量单位多个指标综合评价的一种评价方法，是一种集古典参数估计与近代非参数统计优点于一体的统计信息分析方法，被广泛地应用于多指标综合评价、统计预测预报、统计质量控制等方面。……