王 程，刘政鸿

(陕西省水土保持生态环境监测中心，陕西 西安 710004)

明代晋陕峡谷区干旱灾害时空特征分析

王 程，刘政鸿*

(陕西省水土保持生态环境监测中心，陕西 西安 710004)

通过对明代晋陕峡谷区历史资料的搜集整理，统计分析了该地区干旱灾害的时空分布特征。结果表明，明代晋陕峡谷区共发生干旱灾害143次，平均每1.93 a发生1次，其中轻度干旱灾害、中度干旱灾害、重度干旱灾害、特大干旱灾害发生分别占干旱灾害总数的13.99%、41.26%、16.78%、27.97%，各级干旱灾害频次发生的周期分别为5 a、18 a、28 a、52 a左右。在时间上，干旱灾害发生频次呈现出波动性增加趋势，大致可分为干旱灾害少发期-平稳增加期-缓慢增加3个阶段，且主要发生在夏季。在空间上，研究区内干旱灾害发生频次呈现出由北向南增加的趋势。干旱灾害对社会的影响主要表现人口、经济以及社会秩序3个方面。

明代；晋陕峡谷；干旱灾害；时间特征；空间特征

Abstract： The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of drought disasters in the valley area of Shanxi-Shaanxi in Ming dynasty were statistically analyzed through the collection and collation of related historical data. The results showed that: in the valley area of Shanxi-Shaanxi in Ming dynasty, a total of 143 times of drought disasters occurred, once every 1.93 years in average; the mild drought, moderate drought, severe drought, and severest drought disasters accounted for 13.99%, 41.26%, 16.78% and 27.97% of all drought disasters, respectively, and their occurrence periodicity was about 5 a, 18 a, 28 a and 52 a, separately. In the temporal distribution, the occurrence frequency of drought disasters showed a fluctuant increasing trend, which could be roughly divided into three stages: less occurrence stage, steady increasing stage and slow growth stage, and drought disasters occurred mainly in summer. In the spatial distribution, the occurrence frequency of drought disasters in the studied area revealed a trend of increasing from the north to the south. The impacts of drought disasters on the society was reflected mainly in the following three aspects: population, economy and social order.

Keywords： Ming dynasty; Shanxi-Shaanxi valley; Drought disaster; Temporal characteristics; Spatial characteristics

近年来，在全球变暖的气候背景下，极端气候水文事件的发生频率以及强度都发生了改变，引起了国内外学者的广泛关注[1]。极端气候水文事件包括洪水、台风、高温、低温、干旱等，局部地区极端气候水文事件的频繁发生，会对该地区甚至全球的生态环境以及经济发展产生严重影响。王宏等[2]指出，自2009年秋季至2010年春季，云南和广西部分地区发生了特大干旱，对灾区造成农业减产和人畜饮水困难。王佳等[3]对山西明清时期旱灾的分析研究表明：明清时期山西旱灾多于洪灾。……