郑丽+王玉珠

摘 要：为了从理论角度探讨英国体育产业发展与国民经济增长的内在作用机制，采用协整关系检验、误差修正模型估计、格兰杰因果关系验证等计量方法，对英国体育产业发展与经济增长之间的长期均衡关系和短期动态关联进行实证分析。结果表明：样本期内英国体育产业发展和经济增长的水平时间序列是平稳的，英国体育产业发展与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系，英国体育产业发展每提升1%，将带动本国经济总量水平上升0.83%。英国体育产业发展对经济增长的短期拉动效应不可忽视，且英国良好的社会经济发展环境也为进一步提高体育产业产值创造了条件，两者间存在比较显著的双向因果联动关系，即短时期内英国体育产业发展与经济增长间已经形成了相互促进、彼此带动、共同制约的作用机制。

关键词：英国；体育产业；国民经济；长期均衡关系；短期动态关联

中图分类号：G 80-052 文章编号：1009-783X（2017）04-0292-04 文献标识码：A

Abstract： In order to explore the internal mechanism of the development of British sports industry and national economic growth from the theoretical point of view， the present research has， using econometric methods including cointegration test， error correction model estimation， granger causality test and so on， conducted an empirical analysis on the long-term equilibrium relation and short-term dynamic relationship of sports industry development and national economy in British. The results show that： the level of time series of the British sports industry development and economic growth is stable in the sample period； there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the British sports industry development and the national economy growth； every increase of 1% British sports industry will drive the national economy total quantity levels increased by 0.8306%. The short pull effect of sports industry development on economic growth cannot be belittled， while the good environment of social and economic development and also create the conditions for further improving the sports industry. There is a significant two-way causal relationship between the two sides， which means a mutually promotive and restrictive drive mechanism has been formed between the British sports industry development and economic growth in a short period of time.

Keywords： Britain； sports industry； national economy； long-term equilibrium relationship； short-term dynamic relationship

本文采用1985—2013年的時间序列数据，运用动态计量经济学分析方法，对英国体育产业发展与国民经济增长的互动关系展开实证研究，以期能准确、客观地描述英国体育产业发展对国民经济增长的贡献程度，解释国民经济增长速度与水平对体育产业发展的影响效果，并进一步揭示两者间的互动协同效应； 因此，从理论角度探讨英国体育产业发展与国民经济增长的内在作用机制，具有重要的借鉴和启发意义。……