王颜齐，孟杰，毕欣宁

（东北农业大学经济管理学院，黑龙江 哈尔滨 150030）

种植户“粮改豆”意愿及影响因素的实证分析
——基于黑龙江和内蒙古两地微观样本

王颜齐，孟杰，毕欣宁

（东北农业大学经济管理学院，黑龙江 哈尔滨 150030）

近几年，由于多种因素综合作用，国内大豆种植面积大幅下降，农民种植积极性不高，与此同时，我国持续大量从国外进口大豆，形成国内“种豆难、卖豆难、效益低”的局面。2014年中央政府推行大豆目标价补贴政策，积极助推农业供给侧结构性改革。本文对我国大豆主产区黑龙江和内蒙古两地农户“粮改豆”意愿的两次随机抽样调查显示：2014年农户改种大豆意愿普遍偏低，仅为18.3%，而不愿意改种的比例达到45.1%；对比来看，2016年情况有所改变，两者比例分别为25.1%和34.3%，表明农户改种积极性有所提高。利用层次分析法（AHP）提离出影响农户“粮改豆”意愿的最重要的五个因素分别是：大豆单产、大豆价格、销售渠道、大豆品种和大豆补贴政策。本文的基本政策逻辑是：提高优质高产大豆品种研发力度，优化大豆生产经营环境，降成本、提效益，用市场手段引导、激励和规范种植行为，合理制定大豆补贴水平和发放机制，提高政策透明度，降低政策的信息不对称。

大豆种植；粮改豆；农户种植意愿；农户行为；影响因素

Abstract：China’s soybean acreage has been declining sharply in recent years and households’ planting enthusiasm was low due to various factors. At the same time, continuously increasing soybean imports led to “unwilling to grow”,“diffcult to sell”, and “low return” for soybean growers. In 2004, the central Government created and implemented the target price subsidy policy for soybeans, aiming to promote the supply side structural reform of agriculture. Based on a survey data in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia, this paper examined households’ willingness of “grain to soybean production conversion” and identifed the possible infuencing factors by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. Results show that the proportion of the surveyed households willing to plant soybeans was low in 2014, only 18.3%, and the proportion of the surveyed households unwilling to plant soybeans reached 45.1%. The situation changed in 2016: the proportion of the surveyed households willing to plant soybeans increased to 25.1%, and the proportion of the surveyed households unwilling to plant soybeans decreased to 34.3%. This research also identifed fve most important infuencing factors affecting households’ willingness of soybean planting, including yield, price, marketing, soybeans varieties, and the target price subsidy policy on soybeans. Therefore, to increase the enthusiasm of soybean producers, this paper suggests: to increase R&D investment on soybean varieties with high yield and good quality, to optimize the environment of soybean production and trade to realize low cost and high beneft, to regulate soybean planting behaviors by market discipline and the formulation, and to improve the implementation of the target price subsidy policy onsoybeans.

Key words：soybean planting; grain to soybean production conversion; willingness of soybean planting; households’soybean planting behaviors; infuencing factors

大豆是我国重要的粮食作物和油料作物，也是养殖业蛋白饲料的重要来源，在我国农业生产及社会经济生活中占有相当重要的地位。中国作为大豆的原产国，大豆产量曾居世界首位，自1991年至今，我国大豆产量一直低于美国、巴西、阿根廷，只排在全球第四位，而大豆消费量排在世界第一位[1]。……