赵玉，张玉，严武

（1. 东华理工大学经济与管理学院，江西 南昌 330013；2. 江西财经大学金融管理国际研究院，江西 南昌 330013）

粮农能对价格做出正确响应吗？
——基于参照点效应的视角

赵玉1,2，张玉1，严武2

（1. 东华理工大学经济与管理学院，江西 南昌 330013；2. 江西财经大学金融管理国际研究院，江西 南昌 330013）

研究粮农对价格信号的种植行为响应，对于解决粮食安全问题具有重要的现实意义。在前景理论框架下，分析了粮农对市场价格的种植决策响应机制。利用面板门限模型和2002年至2015年全国各省区粮食生产数据资料，检验了粮食价格的心理参照点效应对粮农种植行为的影响。研究发现，粮农种植行为具有参照点依赖的特征，即粮农对亏损和盈利的判断是相对于价格参照点而言的。参数估计结果显示，当粮农将市场状态编辑为盈利前景时，粮农对价格信号反应不足，且是风险厌恶的；当粮农将市场状态编辑为亏损前景时，粮农对价格信号反应过度，对风险和成本的反应不足。相较于市场的盈利前景，粮农对市场亏损前景下的谷物和油料价格更敏感。研究启示在于，政策制定者应重视粮农市场预期及其种植行为的心理决策机制，结合粮农的价格参照点设计更灵活的粮食政策。

粮食生产；种植行为；价格预期；参照点效应；面板门限模型

Abstract：The study on the response of grain farmers to price signals has a great practical signifcance to solve the food security problem. Based on a panel data of grain farmers’ planting behaviors from some main grain production provinces or autonomous regions in China from 2002 to 2015 and applying the prospect theory and the threshold panel data model, this paper analyzed the mechanism of grain farmers’ planting response to market price. Results show that planting decision-making of grain farmers depends on the reference point, in that the judgment on loss and proft of grain farmers is relative to the price reference point. Parameter estimation results reveal that farmers are risk averse in market returns. However, the behaviors of grain farmers are not significantly affected by market risks from the perspective of market loss. Compared with market returns, grain farmers are more sensitive to the price of food and oil from the perspective of market loss. In summary, this paper suggests that policy makers should pay attention to grain farmers’ market expectations and the psychological decision-making mechanism of their planting behaviors, and then make some fexible grain price policies combined with the reference point of grain farmers.

Key words：grain production; planting behaviors; price expectations; anchoring effect; panel threshold model

随着“十三五”期间粮食供给侧改革政策文件的密集出台，深入推进粮食供给侧结构性改革已成为各级政府的重点工作。目前，粮食产业面临着产量高、库存量高、进口量高的“三高叠加”的严峻形势和结构性隐患。……