高杰 杨苑 庞婷婷 张德有

摘要 利用1961—2015年中卫市沙坡头区国家气候基本站的逐日平均气温及地面最低气温资料，采用线性倾向估计等方法研究了近55年沙坡头区气温及霜冻的变化特征。结果表明，近55年来沙坡头区年平均气温在波动中不断上升，尤其21世纪初气候变暖明显，在此背景下，沙坡头区初霜冻日呈推后趋势，终霜冻日呈提前趋势，无霜期呈延长趋势；进入21世纪，初霜冻日平均推后4～5 d，终霜冻日平均提前15 d左右，无霜期明显增加，尤其在近5年平均延长了31 d，特早终霜冻日和特长无霜期也均出现在21世纪。

关键词 初霜冻；终霜冻；无霜冻期；变化特征；沙坡头区

中图分类号 S425 文献标识码 A 文章编号 0517-6611（2017）13-0186-03

Change Characteristics of frost in Shapotou District under the Background of Climate Warming

GAO Jie，YANG Yuan，PANG Ting-ting et al

（Zhongwei City Meteorological Bureau，Zhongwei，Ningxia 755000）

Abstract Using the daily average temperature and ground minimum temperature data of the national climate base station in Shapotou District of Zhongwei City from 1961 to 2015， the change characteristics of temperature and frost in Shapotou District were studied by linear propensity estimation method.The results showed that the annual average temperature in Shapotou District had been increasing in the past 55 years， especially in the beginning of the 21st century. On this background，the first frost day in Shapotou District was pushed forward， and the final frost day was in advance，and the frost-free period was prolonged.In the 21st century，the average first frost day pushed 4-5 days，the average final frost day was about 15 days in advance， and the frost-free period was obviously increased，especially in the past 5 years，an average of 31 days extended，special early final frost day and specialty frost-free period also appeared in the 21st century.

Key words First frost；Final frost；Frost-free period；Change characteristics；Shapotou District

近年来，各种极端天气频发，气候变化问题引起了全球的广泛关注，科学家将其归因为温室效应[1-2]。虽然受温室效应影响，气温总体呈上升趋势，但我国许多地区仍然受到低温冻害的危害[3]。霜冻是植物生长季内，由于冷空气的入侵，使土壤表面、植物表面及近地气层的温度骤降至0 ℃以下，引起植物细胞间结冰而使植物遭到伤害或死亡的一种短时间低温灾害[4]。对农业生产而言，在遇严重的终霜冻结束晚和初霜冻来得早的年份都会给农业生产造成较大危害。如2010年4月11日晚霜冻使中卫市沙坡头区大部分小麦及经济果园冻伤，造成直接经济损失245.01万元。严重的初终霜冻已成为中卫市农业生产的主要灾害之一，因此，霜冻灾害的预测研究备受关注，李红英等[5]、唐晶等[6]、马柱国[7]对不同区域范围霜冻的气候变化特征、霜冻致灾因子指标特征及危害性进行了分析。……