刘亚洲　钟甫宁　王亚楠

摘要：随着农村青壮年劳动力大规模转移，我国农村劳动力老龄化趋势不断加剧，我国农业生产可持续发展面临挑战，在这一背景下对农村老年人劳动时间供给状况进行研究显得十分必要。从2009年开始我国实施了“新农保”政策，而这一政策的实施是否会对老年人农业劳动时间供给产生影响，如有则影响程度又如何呢？基于此本文运用倾向值匹配方法以控制老年人参与“新农保”的自选择所引起的内生性问题，利用农业部全国抽样调查数据分析了我国现行的“新农保”制度对于农村老年人劳动时间供给的影响。研究表明：农村老年人参与“新农保”后不会完全停止劳动供给，但会显著减少劳动时间；参与“新农保”的老年人劳动时间减少的幅度有限，老年人总劳动时间、农业劳动时间、外出从事非农劳动时间仅分别减少了706天、558天、353天；在相同的养老保障水平下老年人劳动时间减少程度在地区间呈现出“西部>中部>东部”的特点。

关键词：新农保；劳动时间供给；农村老年人；倾向值匹配

中图分类号：C9136文献标识码：A文章编号：1000-4149（2016）05-0114-13

DOI：103969/jissn1000-4149201605012

Abstract： With the migration of the rural labor force in young adults，the aging process of the rural labor presents a rising trend，which will have effect on the agricultural productivity in China. It is necessary to analyze the situation about the labor time supply of the elderly in rural area based on such background. “New Rural Pension Insurance” policy has been carried out since 2009 in China. Whether the implementation of “New Rural Pension Insurance” have effect on the labor supply of the elderly in the rural area and the extend of its impact？ Method of Propensity Score Matching is used to control endogenous problems caused by selfselection，this paper analyzes the effect of the new rural pension insurance on the rural elderly labor time supply，based on Fixed Point Rural Survey （FPRS） data. The results show that： The elderly will not stop to work，however the hours of labor will be reduced，if the elderly participate in the “New Rural Pension Insurance”. The hours of labor of the elderly participating “New Rural Pension Insurance” have limited reduced： the total labor time，the agricultural labor time，the nonagricultural labor time going out of the elderly only respectively reduce by 706 days，558 days，353 days. At the same level of oldage security，there exist difference in the reduce degree of the elderly labor time among different area， which present western > middle > east.

Keywords：New Rural Pension Insurance； labor time supply； the rural elderly； PSM

一、引言

我国老龄化的趋势不断加剧，据世界银行预测，2010-2030年，我国65岁及以上老年人口占总人口的比例从7%增加到162%，而到2050年这一比例将增加到247%

资料来源：世界银行网站（http： / /data.worldbank.org）。，尤其是在我国农村地区，老龄化现象十分严重，第六次全国人口普查结果显示，中国农村60岁及以上人口占农村总人口的比例为1498%，高于城镇相应比例329个百分点[1]。而严……