温兴祥　肖书康　温雪

摘要：老龄化背景下，成年子女的异地流动增加了中老年人的健康负担，本文使用中国健康与养老追踪调查数据和倾向分值匹配法，实证考察了农村地区成年子女跨省外出对留守父母健康的影响。估计结果显示，有子女外出的家庭，中老年父母的主观健康如自评健康、认知状况和抑郁程度较差；客观健康也受到不利影响，患关节炎、胃病和肺病的可能性更大。基于收入考量的子女外出确实增加了对父母的经济支持力度，但同时也增加了父母从事隔代照料的可能性。隔代照料负担的增加可能是子女外出对父母健康有不利影响的原因。

关键词：老龄化；人口流动；代际支持；倾向分值匹配

中图分类号：C9136文献标识码：A文章编号：1000-4149（2016）05-0064-10

DOI：103969/jissn1000-4149201605007

Abstract：This paper test how migration of the rural adult children affects their leaving behind parents health. Based on the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study data， using propensity score matching method， we find that the migration of the adult children migrate to other province exerts a negative influence on parents health. We find that the eldertys self rated health， cognition and depression， as well as subjective chronic disease such as arthritis， stomach related disease and lung disease are all negatively affected by the migration of their adult children. Adult child migration indeed increased economic support to parents， but it also increase the likelihood of parents involved into intergenerational care giving. Increasing grandparents care giving maybe the underlying channel that leads to those poor health consequences.

Keywords：population aging； internal migration； intergenerational support； propensity score matching

一、引言

随着生育率的不断下降和人口平

均预期寿命的逐年提高，我国人口逐渐老化，并且老龄化的速度还有不断加快的趋势[1]。值得关注的是，我国人口老龄化呈现出明显的地区差异，农村地区老龄化的程度比城市地区更加严重，而城乡二元经济结构下的人口流动是产生这种现象的原因之一[2]。国家统计局公布的数字显示，2015年我国外出农民工为168亿人，其中跨省迁移的为7745万

见报道《跨省流动农民工人数六年来首次下降》。虽然2015年跨省农民工数量出现了新的下降，但是外出农民工总数依然庞大。http：//money.163.com/16/0429/05/BLQ1GRBF00253B0H.html

。快速的城镇化使得大量农村青壮年劳动力进入城镇劳动力市场，形成举世关注的城乡人口流动现象。……