汪润泉

摘要：参保行为与养老观念存在双向因果关系，倾向于子女养老的居民参加养老保险的概率较低，而参加养老保险也改变着居民的养老观念。通过联立方程模型以及工具变量控制内生性后，得出了养老保险淡化“子女养老”观念的净效应，进而指出养老保险制度不仅挤出了子女对老人的经济支持，同时也弱化了人们的家庭养老观念。国家大力推行的养老保障体系在行为与观念两个层面上挤出了家庭养老，以国家制度化养老保障体系为主体的社会养老模式对家庭养老模式具有替代性。在养老模式的变迁中要综合考虑各主体的功能与责任，联合各界力量共同承担社会养老责任。

关键词：家庭养老；社会养老；养老责任

中图分类号：C9136文献标识码：A文章编号：1000-4149（2016）05-0105-09

DOI：103969/jissn1000-4149201605011

Abstract：Twoway causality exists between peoples behavior

of taking part in old age insurance and their notion of supporting the elderly. People who prefer depending on their children have a lower probability to participate in pension insurance， and the pension insurance also changes peoples notion of old supporting. By using the simultaneous equation model and IVmethod，this paper get the net effect of the pension insurance system on the rural residents responsibility requirements for adult children which indicates that pension insurance not only reduce

adult childrens economic support for the elderly but also weakens peoples concept of family endowment. Chinas social pension insurance can weaken family support both on behavior and concept，and the “public pension system”can substitutes the traditional “family mutual insurance” model in rural China. It is important to consider and joint all forces in the change of pension model，combine all sectors to share the liability of supporting the elderly in the process of population aging.

Keywords：family support； public pension； responsibility of supporting the age

一、引言

近年来，国家制度化养老保障体系的完善、社区养老服务的大力推行，在彰显国家公共服务优化发展的同时，也昭示了对现代社会家庭养老的担忧。近半个世纪以来，伴随着中国社会结构的变迁与转型，家庭结构以及与此相关联的家庭养老功能发生了深刻的变化。在工业化与城市化的共同作用下，家庭日趋小型化，加之日益严重的人口老龄化，家庭的养老功能日渐式微。对此，社会各界纷纷呼吁完善制度化养老保障体系，以弥补家庭养老功能之不足，然而，国家制度化养老的推进却引起了学界的担忧，以国家为主体的社会化养老保障是否对家庭养老产生了挤出效应？……