侯伟 马明明 胡德强 施思 官满元

摘 要 利用1951～2010年海口市国家基准气候站逐月平均气温、降水量、日照时数等数据，采用线性倾向率、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、滑动T检验、累积距平法和Morlet小波分析等数理统计方法，分析了海口市1951～2010年的气候变化特征。结果表明：海口市近60 a气候变化表现为气温显著上升、日照时数显著减少，但降水量变化不明显。20世纪90年代是气温升高、降水量增多、日照时数减少的显著变化稳定期，2000年以后气候变化波动最强烈。旱季气温增幅明显大于雨季，但降水量变化较小。此外，旱季气候要素波动大于雨季。气候突变和小波分析得出，1986年是气温由低到高的突变点，1967～1978、1998～2010年分别是冷期和暖期；1976年是降水量发生由多到少的突变点，1993年是日照时数发生由多到少的突变点。海口市气温和降水量变化均存在5～10 a左右的周期，日照时数存在5～8 a、25～28 a左右的周期。

关键词 气候变化；Mann-Kandall非参数检验；滑动T检验；累积距平；Morlet小波；海口市

中图分类号 P467 文献标识码 A

Abstract Haikou is one of the most important ecological tourist city in China， even throughout the World. The ecological environment and climate is the most precious natural resources. Carrying out the research of climate change characteristics in Haikou could be used to enhance its ability to adapt to the long-term effects of climate change， and delay or avoid the threats caused by climate change to regional ecological security. This paper used the data of monthly mean temperature， precipitation and sunshine duration during the period from 1951-2010 observed by national benchmark climate station and combined with some mathematical statistics methods such as linear regression method， Mann-Kendall nonparametric test， moving T-test， cumulative anomaly method and Morlet wavelet to analyze climate change characteristics in Haikou City. The results indicated that the climate change presented increasing annual mean temperature， decreasing annual sunshine duration， and climate tendency rate was 0.18 ℃/（10 a）and -83.1 h/（10 a）at the significance level α=0.01 respectively， the increasing rate of annual mean temperature was distinctly lower than that in whole China， and decreasing rate of annual sunshine duration significantly higher than in whole China. Moreover， no significant long-term change was observed in annual precipitation in the past 60 a. The stable period of climate changed significantly appeared in 1990s， mainly showed that increasing annual mean temperature and annual precipitation， decreasing annual sunshine duration， and fluctuations in climate change became the strongest since 2000 years. This indicated that the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heat damage， floods and droughts will increase in the near future. In addition， the increasing rate of temperature in dry season was significantly higher than that in rainy season， but the change rate of precipitation was more obvious in rainy season than that in dry season. In addition， the fluctuation of climatic elements was more obvious in dry season than that in rainy season. The study of abrupt climate change and Morlet wavelet revealed that 1986 was an abrupt change point of annual mean temperature increasing， 1976 was an abrupt change point of annual precipitation reduction， 1993 was an abrupt change point of annual sunshine duration reduction， 1967～1978 and 1998～2010 correspond to cold period and warm period in Haikou respectively. Annual mean temperature and annual precipitation of Haikou existed evident characteristic time scale with 5-10 a， the periodic oscillation of annual sunshine duration were in 5-8 and 25-28 a.

Key words Climate change； Mann-Kendall test； Moving T-test； Cumulative anomaly method； Morlet wavelet； Haikou

doi 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2561.2016.10.028

气候变化是21世纪全球面临的一个重大问题[1]，IPCC在第五次评估报告（AR5）中指出，全球气候系统变暖的事实毋庸置疑，1880～2012年全球平均温度已升高0.85 ℃（0.65～1.06 ℃），在过去30 a中，每10 a温度增幅均高于1850年以来任何时期，在北半球，1983～2012年可能是最近1 400 a气温最高的30 a。越来越多地区强降水频率、强度和降水量在增加[2]。与全球气候变暖相应，中国近100 a来平均温度上升了0.79 ℃，尤其近50 a（1956～2005年）的增幅最明显，气候变暖对中国南涝北旱的分布格局产生了显著影响[3-4]。

中国气候类型多样，时间和空间上的较大差异，气候变化背景下的区域气候响应差异性很大[3]。……