甘露 关志强 荀梅 张芳

摘 要：在城市化已经成为国家经济发展水平衡量标准的背景下，一个国家若是想促进经济增长求得发展，就必须进行城市化建设[1]，借助扩大内需促进经济增长的方式逐渐缩小城乡差距。本文利用1993—2013年共21年的数据，选取了城镇居民人均可持续收入、农村居民人均可持续收入、城乡居民银行储蓄存款3个因素利用回归模型分析对居民消费水平的影响。实证分析结果显示，城乡居民的边际消费倾向都比较接近1，表明城乡居民收入水平及居民银行存款对居民的消费水平有显著的正向影响。

关键词：居民消费水平；收入；Eviews；建议

中图分类号：C915 文献标识码：A DOI 编码：10.3969/j.issn.1006-6500.2016.05.025

Urban and Rural Residents in China： An Empirical Study of Factors Affecting the Consumption Level

GAN Lu， GUAN Zhiqiang， XUN Mei， ZHANG Fang

（College of Management， Xinjiang Agricultural University， Urumqi， Xinjiang 830052， China）

Abstract：In order to promote economic growth， consumption was one of the three carriages， played an irreplaceable role in the economic development. Along with the rapid progress of our country economy， only by relying on the increase in domestic demand and boost the economy， can we truly achieve the MFN Huimin. The three factors of urban residents per capita sustainable income， rural residents per capita sustainable income， urban and rural residents of bank savings deposits were selected by regression model analysis of the impact to the residents' consumption level in this paper， using the 21 years of data from 1993 to 2013. The empirical analysis showed that urban and rural residents' marginal propensity to consume was close to 1， and the income level of residents and residents of urban and rural bank deposits on the consumption level of residents had a positive effect of one significantly. Therefore， to improve the income level of urban and rural residents， narrow the income gap between urban and rural residents has important practical significance to improve the overall level of consumption of Chinese residents.

Key words： residents' consumption level； income； Eviews； suggests

1 经济背景及研究意义

截止到2015年，我国已经基本完成101个重点改革任务。在已开始的“十三五”规划时期，我国经济进入了由高速增长转向中高速增长的发展阶段，在增长的动力源上由投资驱动向消费驱动和创新驱动转移[2]。在这一特殊的历史发展阶段，城乡居民的收入与消费水平有了显著提高，居民的消费需求扩张和消费结构升级成为拉动我国经济增长的主要动力。因此，研究消费水平对于正处于转型期的我国经济有极其重要的意义。

2 理论综述

2.1 居民消费水平的定义

居民消费水平是指居民在物质产品和劳务的消费过程中，对满足人们生存、发展和享受需要方面所达到的程度。它通过消费的物质产品和劳务的数量及质量反映出来[3]。

2.2 理论综述

2.2.1 凯恩斯的绝对收入假说 凯恩斯在《货币通论》中提出了绝对收入假说的理论，主要观点是人们的消费支出是由其当期的可支配收入所决定的。……