淮河流域污染的“行政边界效应”与新环境政策影响

李静，陶璐，杨娜

(合肥工业大学经济学院，安徽合肥230601)

摘要：本文基于淮河流域2004-2013年国控重点监测断面周数据，运用OLS法和最邻近匹配方法(NNM,Nearest Neighbor Matching)考察地级市行政边界对河流污染的影响。研究表明，淮河流域行政边界下游比上游污染更为严重，“行政边界效应”分别达到-13.764%(DO,溶解氧)、46.453%(COD,化学需氧量)和145.736%(NH3-N,氨氮)。使用双重差分法检验了 “十一五”和“十二五”环境政策对淮河流域跨界污染问题的影响，发现纳入考核范围的COD的“行政边界效应”在“十一五”后期才有所改善，“十二五”政策则显著缓解了约束性指标COD和NH3-N的“行政边界效应”。研究对于打破淮河流域各地级市“逐底竞争”的考核机制、制定更为合理的考核办法、鼓励地级市间环境合作治理都有重要的现实价值。

关键词：最邻近匹配法；河流污染；行政边界效应；双重差分法；环境政策

收稿日期：2014-10-08修回日期：2015-05-26

基金项目：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71103057；71473068)。

作者简介：李静(1978-)，男，安徽涡阳人，合肥工业大学经济学院副教授，经济学博士，研究方向：区域经济学、资源与环境经济学、数量经济学。

中图分类号：F062.2

文献标识码：A

文章编号：1002-9753(2015)06-0091-12

Abstract：Based on the state key monitoring sections’ weekly data of Huaihe River Basin from 2004 to 2013,we apply OLS regression and nearest neighbor matching method,and test the effect of municipal administrative boundary on rivers’ pollution.It turns out that the pollution level at the boundary downstream monitoring sites is higher than that at the boundary upstream monitoring sites,and the “administrative boundary effect” is-13.764%(DO),46.453%(COD),145.736%(NH3-N).We research the influence of “11th Five-Year Plan” and “12th Five-Year Plan” on Huaihe River Basin transboundary pollution with the method of Difference in Difference(DID),and find that “boundary effect” of COD which is brought into “11th Five-Year Plan” eases later.After bringing NH3-N into “12th Five-Year Plan”,“boundary effect” of COD and NH3-N significantly reduce.The research is of great practical significance to break the assessment mechanism of local “race to bottom”,draft a more reasonable assessment method,and encourage cooperative governance cross river environment problems etc.

The “Administrative Boundary Effect” of the Huaihe

River Basin Pollution and the Environmental Policy Effect

LI Jing，TAO Lu，YANG Na

(SchoolofEconomics,HefeiUniversityofTechnology,Hefei230601,China)

Key words:nearest neighbor matching method;rivers’ pollution;administrative boundary effect;Difference in Difference;environmental policy

一、引言

跨界河流污染问题有很强的负外部性，行政边界上游地区排污的治理成本往往由下游地区承担。研究表明，行政边界下游地区的河流污染程度远远高于上游地区，解决这一问题需要各主体共同治理，而管辖权的分割导致各主体产生利益冲突，从而引发“搭便车”行为(Sigman，2002[1];Missfeldt，1999[2])。……