膨胀还是坍塌：城镇化对育龄妇女生育规划的影响研究

倪国华1，蔡昉2

(1.北京工商大学经济学院，北京100048；2.中国社会科学院，北京100732)

摘要：近年来，“计划生育”持续引发各相关社会阶层针锋相对的争议。科学回答“如果不实行‘计划生育’，中国未来的人口增长趋势究竟会怎样？”这一根本问题将成为解答争议的关键要件。本文基于独立于部门利益之外的非官方CHNS调查数据，首次利用倾向评分匹配(PSM)的方法定量分析在不实行“计划生育”的条件下，城镇化对育龄妇女生育规划的影响。结果表明：城镇化会使无子女育龄妇女和有子女育龄妇女当期准备要孩子的概率分别下降5.43%和3.45%；使相同条件的无子女育龄妇女和有子女育龄妇女的理想子女数分别减少0.32和0.364个。这意味着，对放开“计划生育”之后可能会出现报复性人口膨胀的风险可不必过于担忧，因为中国正在经历的城镇化将会从根本上改变家庭生育规划，并最终导致自然生育率下降。

关键词：计划生育；城镇化；育龄妇女；生育规划

收稿日期：2015-01-28修回日期：2015-04-02

基金项目：中国博士后科学基金第55 批面上资助项目(项目编号：2014M550126) ；北京社会科学基金重大项目(项目编号：14ZDB18)；北京工商大学两科基金培育项目(19008001094)；北京市哲学社会科学首都流通业研究基地项目。

作者简介：倪国华(1977-)，男，内蒙赤峰人，北京工商大学经济学院副教授，中国社会科学院人口所博士后，研究方向：公共治理。

中图分类号：C923

文献标识码：A

文章编号：1002-9753(2015)06-0045-11

Abstract：In recent years,“Family Planning” continuously caused controversy in all relevant sectors.The key element to resolve the dispute is to answer the fundamental question “if there is no ‘family planning’,what will happen for China’s population growth trend in the future?” Based on the unofficial CHNS survey data which is independent of sectoral interests,this paper studied the impact of urbanization on women childbearing planning under the assumption of no “family planning” with the method of propensity score matching (PSM).The results showed that:Urbanization make the probabilities of childbearing planning for childless women and the women with children fell 5.43% and 3.45%,respectively,as well as make the ideal number of children for childless women and the women with children decrease by 0.32 and 0.364.This means that it is not necessary to worry about the risk of population retaliatory swell after “family planning” liberalization,for that the urbanization China is experiencing will radically change family fertility planning,and eventually lead to a natural fertility decline.

Expansion or Collapse:the Study on the Impact of Urbanization on Women Fertility Planning

NI Guo-hua1,CAI Fang2

(1.CCFS,BeijingTechnologyandBusinessUniversity；Beijing100048,China;

2.ChineseAcademyofSocialSciences,Beijing100732,China)

Key words:family planning;urbanization；women of childbearing age；fertility planning

一、引言

近年来，很少有政策像“计划生育”这样持续引发决策者、研究者、普通民众及各相关社会阶层针锋相对的争议的。……