张浩　雷有春　靳瑞霞

摘要气候变化直接影响着自然环境，并与整个社会发展相互作用，北非区域发展也面临着这一巨大挑战。气候变化条件下经济社会发展的脆弱性、适应能力和引发的社会冲突已经成为各国关注的焦点。农业是摩洛哥的经济支柱，也是该国贫困人口的主要谋生手段。因此，在北非主要国家中，气候变化对摩洛哥的影响尤为显著。该研究简述了非洲气候变化背景下摩洛哥土地利用方式及其发展变化，讨论了气候变化对该国农业和社会稳定的影响，并简要分析了绿色摩洛哥计划、光伏发电等适应性应对策略和政策及其影响。该国现有的农业激励措施不足以缓解旱灾的影响，为了增加应对气候变化的能力，农业政策需要从农业输出最大化向稳定化转变。

关键词摩洛哥；气候变化；农业；适应；绿色计划

中图分类号S-9文献标识码A文章编号0517-6611（2015）07-352-03

The Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture and Adaptive Strategy in Morocco

MA Ji-hong， REN Hong， ZHANG Xiao-yun et al

（Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography， CAS， Urumqi， Xinjiang 830011）

AbstractThere is directly effect of climate change on natural environment， and interaction with whole society development. The development of North Africa is also facing this challenge. With the background of global climate change， the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of social-economic developing and related social conflicts have become the focus of attention of most of countries worldwide. Agriculture is the economic pillar for Morocco， and it is main way of livelihood for poor people. Therefore， the effect of climate change on Morocco is significant in North Africa. Here， we showed the land using patterns and its change in Morocco with the changing global climate. The effect of climate change on agriculture and social stability of Morocco was discussed. Adaptive strategies and policies， including Green Morocco Plan and solar power， were also analyzed. We pointed out that current agricultural incentive methods could not counteract the negative effects of drought in Morocco. To improve the ability of dealing with climate change， agricultural output maximization should be transformed to long-term output stabilization.

Key wordsMorocco； Climate change； Agriculture； Adaption； Green Morocco Plan

农业对气候变化非常敏感，是受气候变化影响最大的行业之一[1-2]。气候变化引起了水、热资源的分布变化，土壤有机质和肥力也发生了改变。各种农作物的生长和产量都受到巨大的影响。各国也先后将气候变化纳入粮食安全对策制定考虑的关键问题范畴。

摩洛哥王国是非洲西北部君主制国家。其东部与阿尔及利亚接壤，南部其实际控制的西撒哈拉地区与毛里塔尼亚紧邻，西部滨临大西洋，并向北隔直布罗陀海峡和地中海与葡萄牙、西班牙相望。摩洛哥与中国自40多年前建立外交关系以来双边关系迅速发展，并在多个领域有经济贸易和技术合作。……