摘要：以保障国家粮食安全、促进经济可持续发展和建设生态文明为目标，以鹤壁市为例，在对耕地需求量和耕地的可供给量预测的基础上，构建了4个耕地保有量决策方案。研究结果表明，①耕地供大于求，鹤壁市在规划期内耕地资源相对充足；②考虑到鹤壁市作为国家循环经济试点城市和河南省城乡一体化试点城市，推荐“集约循环型”方案为首选方案，“全面小康型”作为备选方案；③在未来一段时间内仍需占用大量建设用地，应建立开源节流机制，走内涵挖潜发展的道路；④多目标决策的方法能够较为深入地对影响耕地保护的各因素进行分析，预测结果更加准确，可为制定鹤壁市的耕地保护政策、土地利用总体规划及经济发展规划提供更为科学的依据。

关键词：多目标决策；耕地保有量；预测耕地保护目标体系；鹤壁市

中图分类号：F323.211 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2014）17-4219-04

Prediction of Demands on Cultivated Land Based on Multi-criteria Decision

ZHAO Su-xia

（College of Surveying & Land Information Engineering， Henan Polytechnic University， Jiaozuo 454000， Henan， China）

Abstract： To ensure the food security， promote the sustainable development of economy and build the ecological civilization， Hebi city was taken as an example to construct four decision schemes based on the forecast about the demand and the supply of cultivated land. The results showed that the supply of cultivated land was greater than that of demand. The resources of cultivated land were relatively abundant during the planning period in Hebi city. Considering that the city is one of the national circular economy pilot cities and one of the urban and rural integration pilot cities in Henan province， the "intensive recycling" program was recommended as the preferred option and the "a comprehensive well-off" as an alternative program. A lot of land was needed for construction in a period of time. The mechanism of increasing income and reducing expenditure should be established. The connotative development was the inevitable choice. Multi-criteria decision method could deeply analyze factors affecting protection of cultivated land. The prediction results were more accurate. It will provide scientific basis for protection policy of cultivated land， and planning and economic development of land use.

Key words： multi-criteria decision； demand of cultivated land； prediction objective system of cultivated land conservation；Hebi city

耕地是土地资源的精华，是国家粮食安全最基本的战略资源，在一个相当长的时期内，耕地保护始终是我国土地利用的最根本问题[1]。耕地保护的程度不够会危及到粮食安全、社会稳定，保护过度又会影响到建设用地的供给。选择合理的耕地保护目标，已成为一个亟待解决的问题[2]。耕地保有量预测给出了耕地在未来使用的信息，因此，耕地保有量预测在协调各类用地矛盾和提高当地经济运转效率方面具有突出作用[3]。

耕地保护目标是一个由实现粮食安全、 社会稳定和生态环境可持续发展所构成的多元目标体系[4]。……