徐持平+汪瑜+董利民

摘要：利用协整检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解等方法，对洱海流域经济增长与土地利用之间的长期均衡关系和短期动态关系进行了检验和分析。结果表明：（1）经济增长与土地利用之间存在长期均衡关系，但短期内却存在失衡，经济增长短期波动向长期均衡趋近的调整幅度为17.31%，农业用地短期波动向长期均衡趋近的调整幅度为34.52%。（2）在经济、社会、生态环境政策的影响下，经济增长与土地利用之间以及经济增长过程中各类土地利用的作用关系在不同阶段表现出不同的特征。（3）经济增长的变动主要受自身和建设用地冲击影响；建设用地变动的主要因素是自身；农业用地的变动主要受建设用地冲击影响；生态环境用地变动的主要因素为建设用地和农业用地。因此，政府部门应该严格遵循城市规划和土地利用规划，遏制建设用地无序扩张；优化调整土地利用结构，实现土地资源合理配置；提高土地利用效率，节约集约利用土地。

关键词：经济增长；土地利用；VAR模型；脉冲响应；方差分解；洱海流域

中图分类号：F301.24 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2014）01-0228-08

Dynamic Econometric Analysis of the Relationship between Economic Growth and City Land Use —— Taking Erhai Basin as Example

XU Chi-ping1，WANG Yu2，DONG Li-min1

（1.College of Economy and Business Management， Central China Normal University，Wuhan 430079， China；

2. Audit Department of Wuhan No.1 Hospital， Wuhan 430022， China）

Abstract： With co-integration test， impulse response function and variance decomposition method， the long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic relationship between economic growth and land use in Erhai basin were tested and analyzed. The research shows that：（1）there exist equilibrium relationship between economic growth and land use in the long term whereas things are different in the short term， and the economic growth range of short term equilibrium going towards long term equilibrium is 17.31%， and the agricultural land range of short term equilibrium approaching long term equilibrium is 34.52%. （2）The relationship between economic growth and land use as well as the interactions among different kinds of land use in the process of urbanization show different characteristics in different stages and are is influenced by economic， social and ecological policies. （3）Economic growth has a significant correlation with itself and construction land， and the main influencing factor in the change of construction land is construction land itself， playing an important role in the change of agricultural land； construction land and agricultural land are the main factors of the change of ecological land. Therefore， in order to prevent the construction land from expanding disorderly， governments should comply with the city planning and land-use planning. At the same time， land use structure should be optimized in order to realize the optical allocation of land use. Finally， governments should also improve land use efficiency， using land economically and intensively.

Key words： economic growth； land use； VAR model； impulse response； variance decomposition； Erhai basin

收稿日期：2013-04-22

基金项目：国家社会科学基金重点项目（12AGL006）；国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项（2009ZX07105-001）；华中师范大学中央高校

基本科研业务费专项资金项目（120002040265）。

作者简介：徐持平（1987-），男，湖南长沙人，在读硕士研究生，研究方向为土地经济、人口资源环境经济，（电话）15387064440（电子信箱）

xcp8709@126.com；通讯作者，董利民（1968-），男，湖北蕲春人，教授，博士，主要从事土地经济、人口资源环境经济研究，（电话）