中图分类号：S-9 文献标志码：A

Spatiotemporal Evolution Analysis of Agricultural Production and Coordination between Resources and Environment in the Guangdong

Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Hu YunFei，Luo YiWen （Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information，Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences /Key Laboratory ofSouth China UrbanAgriculture，MinistryofAgricultureandRuralAffairs，Guangzhou，Guangdong 51O640，China）

Abstract： 【Objective】 The green and low-carbon development in Guangdong-Hong KongMacao Greater Bay Area is at the forefront of other regions in China，carbon emission per unit GDP of advanced cities has reached the level of developed countries，but there is still a lack of systematic deconstruction research on the spatiotemporal evolution law of the dynamic coupling relationship between agricultural productivity and resource and environmental carrying capacity in this region. This study aimed to analyze the phased characteristics and spatial pattern evolution trend of the coordinated relationship between agricultural production capacity and resource and environmental carrying capacity over a relatively long time scale，which would be helpful to optimize the allocation of regional agricultural resources and promote the sustainable and healthy development of urban and rural areas. 【Method】 Taking the 9 prefecture-level cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area（Guangzhou，Shenzhen，Foshan，Zhuhai，Dongguan，Zhongshan，Jiangmen， Huizhou and Zhaoqing） as the research units，and taking 1992，2000，2010，2015 and 2020 as the research time points， the agricultural production level evaluation index system and agricultural resources and environment conservation evaluation index system were established at different levels. The Delphi method was used to analyze the agricultural production level，resource and environmental conservation degree，and coordination degree of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in the past 30 years，and to explore its spatiotemporal clustering pattern. According to the comprehensive score and the difference of changes in the past 3O years，the spatiotemporal clustering analysis was carried out by using the methods of sum of squares of deviations，and the results of spatial and temporal clustering of agricultural production level and resource and environmental conservation degree of the9 prefecture-level cities was obtained.【Result】From 1992 to 2020，the overall sustainable development of agriculture in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area was in a coordinated state，but the gap in agricultural production levels among the nine cities in mainland China increased，and the degree of resource and environmental protection was unstable.From the perspective of spatial patern，the agricultural production level in the Guangdong-Hong KongMacao Greater Bay Area generally showed a spatial differentiation pattern of“northwest - southeast direction”，with Zhaoqing as class I city，Guangzhou，Huizhou，Jiangmen and Zhuhai as class I cities；the conservation of agricultural resource and environmental presented a spatial diferentiation pattern of“central collpse - peripheral fluctuations”，and according to the clustering results，category I includes Shenzhen， Zhuhai and Dongguan，which are close to Hong Kong and Macao，while category II includes Huizhou， Zhaoqing and Jiangmen，which are located in the periphery of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.【Conclusion】 In the past 30 years，the low coordination scope of agricultural development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has expanded spatially towards the coastal direction，while the high coordination scope has moved from the eastern edge of Huizhou to Shenzhen， increasing the difficulty of coordinating resource and environmental protection with agricultural production development. Tthe Greater Bay Area should focus on establishing a green production system，protecting resources and environment，conserving and intensively utilizing resources and energy，and increasing investment in science and technology to improve the spatiotemporal matching and eficiency between regional agricultural development and resource utilization。

Keywords： Agricultural production level; agricultural resources and environment； coordination degree；spatiotemporal clustering;Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

0 引言

【研究意义】近年来，粤港澳大湾区深入学习贯彻习近平总书记系列重要讲话和重要指示精神，牢固树立和践行绿色发展理念，绿色低碳发展走在前列，我国澳门、深圳、香港、广州等城市单位GDP碳排放量已达到发达国家水平（许乃中和王秀明，2023）。分析较长时间尺度上，都市区域农业生产能力与资源环境承载力间协调关系的阶段性特征及其空间格局演变态势，能更全面地评估区域农业生产力可持续发展水平，发现区域农业供给与资源要素保障空间上布局存在的问题及其发展态势，有助于下一阶段优化都市区的农业资源配置方式。【前人研究进展】当前，学界对区域农业可持续发展的关注主要集中在农业生产水平和资源环境保障上（王长建，2021；吴大磊等，2022）。其中，在农业生产水平方面，研究人员关注区域农业生产结构的调整（张悦等，2022；罗富民，2022），通过优化种植和养殖结构，提高农产品质量和产量（刘魏等，2019）；科技创新对提升农业生产水平的作用也得到关注，包括应用先进的种植技术、养殖技术和农业机械化等（沈佩莉等，2023；袁若兰等，2023），农业技术进步和纯技术效率提高，能促进农业绿色全要素生产率上升（李圭等，2024），提高农产品的产量和质量，农业信息化、智能化和数字化（王艳，2022）等先进的管理技术和手段得到推广和应用（曹靖等，2020），也在不断提高区域农业生产的效率和水平（严丹等，2021）。在资源环境协调度方面，研究人员较关注农业资源的利用效率（朱小雨等，2020），通过提高土地利用效率（孙芳芳等，2014）、水资源利用效率（李胜华等，2021）和能源利用效率（农宇，2019），实现农业生产可持续发展。……