范秀平 戴翠贤 贾斯 苏睿杰 方红娟 岳改慧

摘 要：【目的】探索山西省近40 a地温变化规律，为其地热开发、碳达峰路径选择提供参考。【方法】选取1981—2020年山西省108个台站地表温度数据，利用气候倾向率、突变检验、小波分析、经验正交函数分解等方法进行分析。【结果】山西省近40 a地温呈明显上升趋势，上升速率为0.499 ℃/10 a。地温呈现“南高北低”分布，高纬地区低于低纬地区，高海拔地区低于低海拔地区。吕梁山脉走向对地温升降影响明显，西北部升温速率最快。【结论】山西省地温与时间相关系数高值区基本与趋势系数高值区重合。地温同位相变化占主导地位，即趋于整体一致的偏高或偏低变化，并在1999年后趋向于更明显的升温趋势。近40 a存在18 a、12 a、6 a左右的周期震荡，未来一段时间山西地温趋向夏季更高、秋季更低。地温变化与气温变化密切相关，约2/3站点地温变化与降水量呈负相关；约1/3站点地温变化与日照时数显著相关。

关键词：山西省；地表温度；时空变化

中图分类号：P423     文献标志码：A     文章编号：1003-5168（2024）08-0097-04

DOI：10.19968/j.cnki.hnkj.1003-5168.2024.08.019

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Changes of Land Surface Temperature in Shanxi for Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals

FAN Xiuping1 DAI Cuixian2 JIA Si3 SU Ruijie1 FANG Hongjuan2 YUE Gaihui1

（1.Shanxi Meteorological Information Center， Taiyuan 030006， China; 2.Sanmenxia Meteorological Bureau of Henan Province， Sanmenxia 472000， China; 3.Xinxiang Changyuan Meteorological Bureau of Henan Province， Changyuan 453400， China）

Abstract： [Purposes] This paper aims to explore the variation rule of land surface temperature in Shanxi Province during the past 40 years， and provide reference for geothermal development and carbon peak path selection in Shanxi Province. [Methods] This paper selected the land surface temperature data of 108 stations in Shanxi from 1981 to 2020，used the methods of climate propensity rate analysis，M～K mutation detection， wavelet analysis etc analyze land surface temperature. [Findings] The land surface temperature of nearly 40 a in Shanxi showed a significant upward trend， with an increase rate of 0.499 ℃/10 a. The land surface temperature high in the south and low in the north， high latitudes are clearly lower than those in low latitudes， high altitudes are significantly lower than low altitudes. The trend of the Lüliang Mountain has a significant impact on the rise and fall of land surface temperature. The northwest has the fastest rate of warming. [Conclusions] The high value area of correlation coefficient of land surface temperature and time in the whole province basically coincides with the high value area of trend coefficient. The phase change of the land surface temperature is dominant， the high or low change tends to be consistent as a whole， and tends to be a more obvious warming trend after 1999. there are periodic oscillations of about 18 a， 12 a and 6 a， and the land surface temperature in Shanxi has a tendency to be higher in summer and lower in autumn in the future. The land surface temperature variation is closely related to air temperature variation. About 2/3 of the stations showed negative correlation between land surface temperature and precipitation. About 1/3 of the sites have significant correlation between land surface temperature and sunshine duration.

Keywords： Shanxi Province; the land surface temperature; spatiotemporal changes

0 引言

气候变化对人类社会可持续发展的严峻挑战是各个国家面临的重要议题。实现“双碳”目标和应对气候变化，需要多部门、多学科的广泛合作与交融。地表温度的变化趋势、变化频率对区域气候［1-2］、农作物布局、农业生产、土壤养分变化、气候产量［3］、海绵城市建设、区域地质灾害［4-5］等有着重要影响，甚至与输电线路运转［6］等密切相关。无论是基于全国地表温度数据变化研究，还是基于区域地表温度分析，其气候空间特征和突变特征都可为助力经济转型升级、粮食生产安全等提供有效参考。……