王海平，渠鸿宇，董林，向纯怡

摘要：2023年第5號台风“杜苏芮”海上维持超强台风时间长达约72 h，登陆福建时为强台风级，登陆后维持时间长达22 h，给我国近海、沿海和内陆地区造成了严重的风雨影响。各家数值模式预报出现较大分歧，给综合预报造成较大困难。为了更好地对模式做出解释应用，重点检验了中国气象局区域台风数值预报系统（China Meteorological Administration Typhoon Model，CMA-TYM）和中国气象局全球同化预报系统（China Meteorological Administration Global Forecast System，CMA-GFS）的路径和强度预报在“杜苏芮”预报过程中的表现，并采用欧洲中期天气预报中心（European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts，ECMWF）和美国国家环境预报中心（National Centers for Environmental Prediction，NCEP）预报与之对比，从而找出国产模式的优势和不足。检验结果发现，CMA-TYM路径预报误差与NCEP相近，大于ECMWF和CMA-GFS。在台风生成初期，CMA-TYM对其移动方向预报出现较大偏差，明显偏向了实况路径的右侧。23日开始的路径预报对登陆点把握良好，误差主要由对移动速度的预报偏快造成。且CMA-TYM对快速加强过程的预报效果较其他模式具有显著优势。CMA-GFS的路径预报质量较好，平均误差略大于ECMWF，但小于NCEP和CMA-TYM，尤其是对长时效预报具有较好的可参考性，但对强度预报明显偏弱。

关键词：台风“杜苏芮”；数值模式；预报检验

中图分类号：P457.8     文献标志码：A      文章编号：2096-3599（2023）04-0001-00

DOI：10.19513/j.cnki.issn2096-3599.2023.04.003

Forecast verification of CMA models for Typhoon Doksuri （2305）

WANG Haiping， QU Hongyu， DONG Lin， XIANG Chunyi

（National Meteorological Center， Beiing 100081， China）

Abstract： Typhoon Doksuri （2305） maintains as super typhoon at sea for about 72 h， lands in Fujian as severe typhoon， and maintains for 22 h after landing， causing serious wind and rain impacts to Chinas offshore， coastal， and inland areas. There are great differences in the forecast of various numerical models， which cause great difficulties to forecasters. In order to better explain and apply the models， this paper focuses on the verification for the performance of CMA-TYM （China Meteorological Administration Typhoon Model） and CMA-GFS （China Meteorological Administration Global Forecast System） track and intensity prediction in the process of Doksuri， and compares them with the forecasts of ECMWF （European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ） and NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction，NCEP） to find out the advantages and disadvantages of CMA models. The results show that the CMA-TYM track forecast errors are similar to those of NCEP and greater than those of ECMWF and CMA-GFS. The prediction of its movement direction at the initial stage has a large deviation， which is obviously biased to the right side of the real track. The track forecast starting on 23 June has a good grasp of the landing point， and the error is mainly due to the prediction of faster moving speed. Compared with other models， the CMA-TYM prediction of fast strengthening process has significant advantages. The CMA-GFS track forecast performs well， whose mean error is slightly larger than that of ECMWF， but smaller than that of NCEP and CMA-TYM. CMA-GFS can provide a good reference for long-term prediction， while it is obviously weak for intensity prediction.

Keywords： Typhoon Doksuri; numerical model; forecast verification

引言

近年来，现代数值天气预报已成为天气预报业务的核心支撑，在气象防灾减灾、社会公众服务等工作中发挥着不可替代的作用[1]。随着数值模式的发展，台风路径和强度预报质量不断提高[2-4]。目前，中国气象局区域台风数值预报系统（China Meteorological Administration Typhoon Model，CMA-TYM）和中国气象局全……