刘达，向纯怡，张玲，许映龙，罗琦

摘要：通过总结2023年第5号台风“杜苏芮”的主要特点，并对主要的预报难点问题进行分析和研究，得出以下主要结论：（1）“杜苏芮”登陆强度强，是2023年截至10月登陆我国最强的台风，登陆后在陆上长时间维持，造成福建、安徽等地多站点风雨观测突破历史极值，黄淮、华北等地出现历史极端强降雨天气。（2）在“杜苏芮”生成初期，由于副热带高压受到多系统的影响，数值模式对于“杜苏芮”台风东侧新生热带扰动的强度、位置预报存在偏差，是产生较大路径预报偏差的原因。（3）“杜苏芮”登陆前形成双眼墙结构增加了登陆强度预报的难度，有利的形势条件和多源观测资料的应用为台风强度预报提供了良好的支撑。（4）“杜苏芮”登陆后，来自西南季风和第6号台风“卡努”共同的水汽输送、太行山地形作用以及移动路径上弱的垂直风切变均有利于台风减弱后的低压环流长时间维持。

关键词：台风“杜苏芮”；预报难点；预报偏差；热带扰动

中图分类号：P444;P458.124   文献标志码：A  文章编号：2096-3599（2023）04-0001-00

DOI：10.19513/j.cnki.issn2096-3599.2023.04.001

Analysis on main characteristics of Typhoon Doksuri （2305） and difficulties in its track and intensity forecast

LIU Da1， XIANG Chunyi1， ZHANG Ling1， XU Yinglong1， 2， LUO Qi1

（1. National Meteorological Center， Beijing 100081， China; 2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences， Beijing 100049， China）

Abstract： The overview and main characteristic of Typhoon Doksuri （2305） are summarized， and the difficulties in its forecast are also analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows. （1） Typhoon Doksuri is characterized by the strong landfall intensity， which， for the year 2023， is the strongest typhoon that makes landfall in China by October. Sustaining on land for a long time after landing， it breaks the historical records of wind and precipitation at multiple stations in places such as Fujian and Anhui， and brings historically extreme heavy rainfall to Huang-Huai region and North China. （2） After the genesis of Doksuri， as the circulations that affect the subtropical high are complicated， the numerical prediction of the intensity and location for the newborn tropical disturbance on the east of Doksuri has deviations， which is responsible for the track forecast errors. （3） The formation of double eyewall structure before Doksuri lands increases the difficulty of predicting the landfall intensity， while the favorable circulations and the application of multiple observations are supportive of the typhoon intensity prediction. （4） The sustainable water vapor transport from the southwest monsoon and Typhoon Khanun （2306）， the terrain effect of Taihang Mountain， and the weak vertical wind shear along the typhoon track jointly help the tropical depression maintain for a long time after Doksuri makes landfall.

Keywords： Typhoon Doksuri; forecast difficulty; forecast error; tropical disturbance

引言

臺风是影响我国最严重的灾害性天气之一，平均每年有6～7个台风登陆我国。台风登陆后带来的强烈风雨天气以及其他次生灾害经常造成严重的生命和财产损失[1]。在全球变暖的气候背景下，近30 a西北太平洋和南海台风强度呈现增强的趋势，影响或登陆我国的台风强度也有所增强[2–3]，沿海地区防御台风灾害面临更加严峻的挑战。随着观测手段的丰富和数值预报产品的发展，台风强度和路径预报水平得到了极大的改善。……