夏小双 李泓甫 张芹芹 高利 刘博 陈万权 刘太国

摘要 小麦叶锈病是一种严重威胁小麦安全生产、依靠气流传播的真菌病害，近年来发生呈逐年加重趋势。为明确气象因子对小麦叶锈菌越夏的影响，本研究通过对全国698个气象站点7月-8月最热10 d的日均温和平均日最高气温进行回归分析，对7月-8月0 cm平均地温、平均风速、平均降水量、平均日照时数和平均相对湿度进行空间插值，提取了93个小麦叶锈菌越夏调查点的气象数据，再与调查点小麦叶锈菌能否越夏进行相关性分析，结果显示小麦叶锈菌越夏与7月-8月最热10 d日均温和最热10 d平均日最高气温之间存在极显著相关性（P < 0.01），与其他气象因子相关性不显著（P > 0.05），结果为小麦叶锈病的越夏区划奠定了基础。

关键词 小麦叶锈病;越夏;气象因子;回归分析;地理信息系统;相关性分析

中图分类号： S435.121.43

文献标识码： A

DOI： 10.16688/j.zwbh.2021191

Abstract Wheat leaf rust is one of the fungal diseases that spread by air and seriously threaten the safety of wheat production. In recent years， the occurrence of wheat leaf rust is increasing year by year. In this study， the average day-temperature and the average maximum day-temperature of the 10 warmest days from July to August of 698 meteorological stations were analyzed by regression analysis， and the mean values of ground surface temperature， wind speed， precipitation， sunshine time and relative humidity were analyzed by spatial interpolation. The meteorological data of 93 investigation sites of wheat leaf rust were obtained afterwards. Then the correlation analysis was carried out between oversummering and meteorological factors. The results showed that oversummering had a significant correlation with the average day-temperature and average maximum day-temperature of the 10 warmest days from July to August （P<0.01）， but had no significant correlation with other meteorological factors （P>0.05）， which laid a foundation for classification of the oversummering regions of wheat leaf rust.

Key words wheat leaf rust;oversummering;meteorological factors;regression analysis;GIS;correlation analysis

小麥叶锈病是由小麦叶锈菌Puccinia triticina（Pt）引起的一种真菌病害，具有多次侵染和危害性强的特点，在三大小麦锈病中发生最为普遍和广泛[1]。小麦叶锈菌主要通过侵染小麦叶片影响植株的光合作用，造成小麦减产，发生严重时也危害叶鞘，但基本不侵染小麦的茎秆或穗部。

病害的发生流行不仅需要合适的病原和寄主，环境因素也发挥了至关重要的作用[2]。空气中大部分真菌的子囊孢子数量与空气相对湿度、降水量呈显著相关，且年平均最高温度是影响年份间孢子数量的主要因素[3]。Kulkarni等[4]研究了潜育期、侵染期、气候等6个因素对小麦叶锈病发生的重要性，发现气候条件对小麦叶锈病的发生流行十分重要。……