杨航 许江雯

摘  要：“一带一路”战略的深入实施使冷链物流的发展越来越广泛，现如今已经逐步发展成为现代物流业的重要组成部分。特别是2019年新冠疫情的爆发，更进一步刺激了我国冷链物流行业的生存与发展，因此准确预测冷链物流需求对物流决策以及促进区域经济的提高都至关重要。文章以陕西省冷链物流需求量为研究对象，在灰色GM1，1模型预测的基础上，采用马尔科夫优化该预测模型的方法，更加合理地预测出陕西省未来5年的冷链物流需求量，最后根据预测结果对冷链物流行业之后的发展提出建议。

关键词：一带一路;冷链物流;灰色预测;马尔科夫

中图分类号：F252.8    文献标识码：A

Abstract： The in-depth implementation of the“one belt one road”strategy has made the development of cold chain logistics more and more extensive， and now it has gradually developed into an important part of the modern logistics industry. In particular， the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2019 has further stimulated the survival and development of my country's cold chain logistics industry. Therefore， accurate prediction of cold chain logistics demand is essential for logistics decision-making and promoting regional economic improvement. This paper takes the demand for cold chain logistics in Shaanxi province as the research object. Based on the gray GM1，1 model forecast， Markov optimizes the forecasting model to more reasonably predict the future 5 years of Shaanxi province. The demand for cold chain logistics， and finally put forward suggestions for the future development of the cold chain logistics industry based on the forecast results.

Key words： one belt one road; cold chain logistics; grey forecast; Markov

0  引  言

近年来，随着“一带一路”倡议的不断推进，我国市场经济发展迅猛，居民消费升级也日益明显，人们逐渐从追求温饱向追求品质质量的方向转变，传统的物流方式已不能满足人民日益增长的物质需求，此时一个特殊的物流行业——冷链物流便有了新的发展机遇。冷链物流，指的是冷藏冷冻类物品从生产、贮存、传输、发售再到消费前的各个环节一直处在规定的环境条件下，来保证性能和质量的一个低温物流过程[1]。冷链物流的出现在一定条件下保证了食品的新鲜度，并且减少了食物在运输途中的浪费。在国家政策以及消费升级驱动等因素的影响下，冷链物流业的发展规模持续扩张，已成为现代物流业的重要组成部分。2019年，突如其来的……