徐其春 张乃夫 葛磊蛟 袁天梦 李元良

摘要：伴隨“碳达峰、碳中和”行动方案的出台，投资推动供给侧结构调整和需求侧响应以实现双侧发力成为必然趋势，因此未来电网重点领域的投资策略和发展路径是电力企业所关注的重点。该文综合考虑电网投资的衍生价值，提出一种基于二项系数与变异系数的智能电网投资决策评价模型。首先，梳理电网投资衍生价值的概念、准则和方法;其次，从电网投资效益、电网运维成效、可持续发展价值3个方面构建智能电网投资衍生价值指标体系;并基于二项系数法和变异系数法构建主客观融合的组合赋权方法，根据不同场景需求来调整动态组合因子以实现多目标的动态平衡，体现主客观方法的优势互补;最后，北方某电网案例分析证明该文提出模型的合理性和有效性，并对北方某电网典型区域提出投资决策建议和精益化运维意见。

关键词：碳达峰;电网投资;二项系数;变异系数;主客观融合;评价方法

中图分类号： TM933文献标志码： A文章编号：1674–5124（2021）12–0006–08

Calculation model of power grid investment decision evaluation based on the mixture of binomial coefficient and variant coefficient

XU Qichun1，ZHANG Naifu1，GE Leijiao2，YUAN Tianmeng1，LI Yuanliang2

（1. Tangshan Power Supply Company of State Grid Jibei Electric Power Company Limited， Tangshan 063000， China;

2. School of Electrical and Information Engineering， Tianjin University， Tianjin 300072， China）

Abstract： With the introduction of the “Hit peak emissions and Carbon Neutrality” action plan， it has become an inevitable trend for investment to promote supply-side structural adjustment and demand-side response to achieve bilateral force. Therefore， the investment strategy and development path in key areas of the power grid inthefuturearedeterminedbypowercompanies. Thefocusof attention. Thispapercomprehensively considers thederivative valueof gridinvestment，and proposesasmartgridinvestmentdecision-making evaluation model based on binomial coefficient and variant coefficient. First， sort out the concept， criteria and methods of grid investment derivative value; secondly， construct a smart grid investment derivative value indicator system from three aspects： grid investment benefit， grid operation and maintenance effectiveness， andsustainabledevelopment value; and basedon the binomialcoefficient methodThecombination weighting method of subjective and objective fusion is constructed with the coefficient of variation method， and the dynamic combination factor is adjusted according to the requirements of different demand scenarios to achieve the dynamic balance of multiple goals， reflecting the complementary advantages of subjective and objective methods; finally，acaseanalysisof a northern power grid proves This paper proposes the rationalityand effectivenessof themodel，and proposesinvestmentdecision-makingsuggestionsandleanoperationand maintenance suggestions for a typical area of a northern power grid.

Keywords： hit peak emissions; power grid investment; binomial coefficient; variant coefficient; subjective and objective integration; evaluation method

0引言

实现“碳达峰、碳中和”，是构建人类命运共同体的伟大实践，亟需推动供给侧结构性改革，投资转型绿色低碳电力系统。但当前国内外形势复杂多变，电网投资决策面临诸多挑战。一方面，电网投资所需考虑的外部因素多样，如支撑经济高质量发展、推动能源转型、保障电力供应安全、增强国有经济竞争力等;同时，我国央企投资监管持续加强和输配电定价成本监审趋严，电网经营考核和投资能力压力倍增[1-2]。……