王琪 卢美顺

摘 要： 针对属性权重未知，属性值为二维不确定语言变量的多阶段多属性决策问题，提出一种新的应急物资运输动态决策方法。首先，根据突发事件的动态演变性，将应急决策过程分成若干决策阶段，采用2DULPGWA算子将决策信息集结为群评价矩阵;其次，通过熵权法结合DEMATEL法求解每个阶段的综合指标权重;再次，根据心理参考点与属性值之间的关系构造损益矩阵，结合前景理论得到综合前景矩阵，依次求解当前阶段下的最优方案;最后，通过实例验证所提出方法的有效性和可行性。

關键词： 应急决策;二维不确定语言;前景理论;动态决策

中图分类号： C 933; C 934

文献标志码： A

Dynamic Decision-Making Method for Emergency MaterialTransportation Considering the Limited PsychologicalBehavior of Decision-Makers

WANG Qi，LU Meishun

（School of Management， Shanghai University， Shanghai， 200444， China）

Abstract： Aiming at the problem of multi-stage and multi-attribute decision making with unknown attribute weight and attribute value as two-dimensional uncertain linguistic variables， a new dynamic decision-making method for emergency material transportation is proposed. Firstly， according to the dynamic evolution of emergencies， the emergency decision-making process is divided into several decision-making stages， and the decision information is assembled into a group evaluation matrix by 2DULPGWA operator. Secondly， the comprehensive index weights of each stage are solved by the entropy weight method combined with the DEMATEL method. Thirdly， according to the relationship between psychological reference point and attribute value， the profit and loss matrix is constructed， and the prospect theory matrix is combined with the prospect theory to solve the best scheme under the current stage. Finally， the validity of the proposed method are verified by an example.

Key words： emergency decision making; 2-dimensional uncertain linguistic variables， prospect theory; dynamic decision making

近年来，频发的突发事件给国家和人民带来严重的人员伤亡和经济损失，因此，针对突发事件如何及时做出有效的应急决策是应急管理研究的一大热点。而应急救援物资运输作为应急决策过程中的关键环节，很多学者对应急物资运输方案进行了深入探讨。徐选华等将公众意见引入到应急决策中，提出了一种新的多部门大群体应急决策方法;朱莉等针对灾害后应急物资需求，考虑多种运输活动之间的协同影响，构建了集成模式下应急运输路径优化模型;Han等基于蚁群算法和非支配排序遗传算法，提出应急救援车辆调度模型，以最小成本在最短时间内进行应急救援;黄辉等针对突发事件中应急物资配送结构不均衡问题，提出了基于多品种应急物资配比打包的运输规划模型。……