张颖 杨卫

摘要：为进一步促进中国与北极国家的双边贸易 ， 增强中国参与北极事务的话语权 ， 文章采用2008—2018年的面板数据 ，运用扩展的贸易引力模型进行实证检验 ， 分析中国与北极国家双边贸易的影响因素 ，探究北极航道开通对中国与北极国家贸易效率和贸易潜力的影响 ， 并提出发展建议。研究结果表明：中国的经济规模、北极国家的资本劳动比率以及中国与北极国家的贸易依存度对双边贸易产生显著的正向影响 ， 而北极国家的经济规模以及中国与北极国家之间的海运距离对双边贸易产生显著的负向影响 ，加入世界贸易组织促进中国对北极国家的出口贸易而对进口贸易的影响较小;目前中国与美国、俄罗斯和加拿大的贸易效率较高 ， 但北极航道的开通可有力促进

中国与其他北极国家贸易效率的提升;北极航道开通后 ， 中国与北极国家出口贸易潜力提升幅度的平均值约为25% ，其中提升幅度较大的是冰岛（49.74%）和丹麦（36.98%）;针对北极航道开通对中国对外贸易的重要战略意义 ，未来中国应加强与北极国家的贸易联系、完善港口和产业规划布局以及加強与北极国家的交流与合作。

关键词：北极航道;北极国家;双边贸易;贸易效率;贸易潜力

中图分类号：F742;F551;P74      文献标志码：A       文章编号：1005-9857（2021）12-0018-08

The Trade Potentialities Between China and the Arctic CountriesUnder the Background of the Opening of the Arctic Waterway：An Empirical Test Based on Extended Gravity Model

ZHANG Ying，YANG Wei

（College of Economics and Management，Shanghai Ocean University，Shanghai 201306，China）

Abstract：In order to further promote China's bilateral trade with Arctic countries and strengthenChina's right to participate in Arctic affairs， panel data from 2008 to 2018 and an extended tradegravity model were used in this paper， to conduct empirical tests， analyze the influencing factorsof China's bilateral trade with Arctic countries， explore the impact of the opening of the Arcticwaterway on the efficiency and potential of trade between China and Arctic countries，and putforward development suggestions. The results showed that China's economic scale， the capitallabor ratio of Arctic countries， and the trade dependence between China and Arctic countries had asignificant positive impact on bilateral trade， while the economic scale of Arctic countries and themaritime distance between China and Arctic countries had a significant negative impact onbilateral trade. Joining the World Trade Organization promoted China's export trade to Arcticcountries but had a small impact on import trade. At present， China's trade efficiency with the United States，Russia and Canada was relatively high， but the opening of the Arctic waterwaycould effectively promote the improvement of trade efficiency between China and other Arcticcountries. After the opening of the Arctic shipping lane， the average increase in the export tradepotential between China and Arctic countries was about 25%， of which Iceland （49.74%） andDenmark （36.98%）. In view of the important strategic significance of the opening of the Arcticwaterway to China's foreign trade， in the future， China should strengthen trade ties with Arcticcountries， improve the layout of ports and industrial planning， and strengthen exchanges and cooperation with Arctic countries.

Keywords： Arctic channel，Arctic countries，Bilateral trade， Trade efficiency，Trade potentialities

0 引言

随着全球气温的升高和北极冰川的融化 ， 一条新的航道—北极航道已经展现 ， 北极航道的开通将对全球经济贸易提供新的发展契机。2012年中国第五次北极科考顺利结束 ， 并且回程沿80°N的高纬度航线航行 ， 意味着北极航道的开通将成为现实。……