邹乐 曹俐

摘要：为进一步减少中国海洋交通运输业的碳排放 ，促进海洋交通运输业的绿色高质量发展 ， 文章基于中国沿海地区海洋交通运输业的相关数据 ， 测算中国海洋交通运输业的碳排放量 ， 并运用脱钩弹性模型分析海洋交通运输业的碳排放与行业经济增长的脱钩关系;利用 LMDI模型 ， 从碳排放强度、产业结构和行业规模3个方面研究中国海洋交通运输业碳排放的驱动因素。研究结果表明：2001-2017年中国海洋交通运输业的碳排放与行业经济增长的脱钩状态持续动态变化 ， 其中2008年和2013年为强脱钩状态即最理想状态 ， 2009年和2016年为强负脱钩状态即最不理想状态;中国海洋交通运输业的碳排放量整体呈现增长趋势 ， 碳排放强度促进碳排放量的增长但影响不大 ，行业规模是碳排放量增长的主要驱动因素 ，产业结构是碳排放量减少的主要驱动因素。

关键词：海洋交通运输业;碳排放;节能减排;产业结构;行业规模

中图分类号：F552;U6-9;P74      文献标志码：A       文章编号：1005-9857（2021）12-0011-07

The Relationship Between the Carbon Emissions of China's Marine Transportation Industry and the Economic Growth of the Industry and Its Driving Factors

ZOU Le， CAO Li

（College of Economics and Management， Shanghai Ocean University， Shanghai 201306，China）

Abstract： In order to further reduce the carbon emissions of China's marine transportation industry and promote the green and high-quality development of the marine transportation industry， this paper calculated the carbon emissions of China's marine transportation industry based on the relevant data of the marine transportation industry in coastal areas of China， and used the decoupling elastic model to analyze the decoupling relationship between the carbon emissions of the marine transportation industry and the economic growth of the industry. By using the LMDI model， the driving factors of China's marine transportation industry carbon emissions were studied from 3 aspects： carbon emission intensity， industrial structure and industry scale. The results showed that the decoupling of carbon emissions from China's marine transportation industry from 2001 to 2017 had continued to change dynamically. The strong decoupling states in 2008 and 2013 were the most ideal state， and the strong negative decoupling states in 2009 and 2016 were the most unsatisfactory state. The overall carbon emissions of China's marine transportation industry had shown an increasing trend. The intensity of carbon emissions had promoted the growth of carbon emissions but with little effect. The scale of the industry was the main driving factor for the growth of carbon emissions， and the industrial structure was the main driving factor for the reduction of carbon emissions.

Keywords： Marine transportation， Carbon emissions， Energy saving and emission reduction， Industrial structure， Industry scale

0 引言

海洋交通運输业是海洋经济的支柱产业，对进出口贸易和滨海旅游业的发展具有重要的支撑作用。根据国际海事组织（IMO）第四次温室气体研究报告结果 ，2012—2018年国际海运温室气体排放量从9.77亿 t增加到10.76亿 t，预计2050年二氧化碳排放量将比2018年增长约50%[1]。经济发展需求的增加导致海洋交通运输业的碳排放量不断增长，随着中国提出碳达峰和碳中和的目标，绿色、低碳、循环和可持续的经济发展方式逐渐深入人心[2]。……