张丽 侯立文

摘 要： 首先定性分析了共享乘车行业主体的反馈回路，然后考虑在平台安全质量等安全因素的影响下共享乘车行业各主体的因果循环关系，并在考虑政府监管的情况下利用系统动力学模型对共享乘车行业的演化进行了动态仿真，深入量化安全因素对共乘平台发展的影响机制。研究发现，政府管制对整治共享乘车行业乱象具有长远的积极效用;司机和乘客的自发协调监督机制有利于司机安全等级和乘客安全等级的长久维持，将成为有限政府监管资源和共享乘车行业自我监督的有效补充;共享乘车平台不同程度的安全投入转化会在不同的竞争时期为平台创造战略优势，平台可以根据自身发展需求适时调整平台的安全投入策略。

关键词： 安全因素;系统动力学;共享乘车

中圖分类号： F 57

文献标志码： A

The Impact of Safety Factors on the Ride-sharingIndustry Based on System Dynamics

ZHANG Li HOU Liwen

（Antai College of Economics & Management， Shanghai Jiao Tong University， Shanghai 200030， China）

Abstract： Firstly， the paper qualitatively analyzed the feedback loop of the entities of the sharing car industry， and then the causality among the entities of the ride-sharing industry is considered under the influence of security factors such as platform safety and quality. The evolution of the industry is dynamically simulated by using the system dynamics model under the consideration of government regulation， so as to further quantify the influence of safety factors on the development of the ride-sharing industry. The results indicate that the government regulation has a long-term positive effect on managing the chaos of the whole industry; the spontaneous supervision mechanism from drivers and passengers is conducive to the long-term maintenance of driver safety level and passenger safety level， which will be an effective supplement to the limited government regulation resources and self-supervision of the ride-sharing industry; the safety investment of the ride-sharing platform with varying degrees will create strategic advantages for the platform in different competition period， for which the platform can adjust its safety investment strategy based on its own development needs.

Key words： safety factors; system dynamics; ride-sharing

1 共享乘车主体及其安全因素分析

共享乘车主体可分为四类：共乘服务平台、司机、乘客和政府。共乘服务平台基于实时地理位置感知、海量数据处理等技术对乘客和司机进行实时匹配，为乘客的出行需求与司机的接单收益提供支持，并建立完善的制度体系对乘客和司机进行信息管理和关系维护。司机和乘客是交通出行过程的主要参与者，乘客通过共乘服务平台发布订单请求并支付一定的费用，匹配到行程一致的司机，司机在完成订单后也会获得相应的经济收益。此外，共享乘车行业的发展也离不开政府的管制，政府部门通过积极引导塑造共享乘车行业规范性，督促共享乘车平台完善行业从业人员准入、考核及管理制度，促进行业的良性健康发展。……