胡启瑞 李锦虎 王森 郭燕云 吉春容

摘    要：為探明新疆伽师瓜生长季气候变化特征及其对发育期和产量的影响，选取喀什地区伽师县1981—2019年气温、降水、日照和发育期及产量资料，采用Mann-Kendall突变检测、气候倾向率和相关性检验等方法，分析伽师瓜生育期气候变化特征及其影响。结果表明，近39年来，伽师瓜生育期平均气温和≥10℃积温明显增加，降水和日照时数呈不显著增加趋势。平均气温在2000年发生突变，突变后上升了1.0 ℃。≥10 ℃积温在2002年发生突变，突变后升高了333.75 ℃·d。伽师瓜生育期内气温、日照时数、降水量和平均地温呈上升趋势，平均相对湿度呈减少趋势，其中最高气温、最低气温、平均气温和平均地温（5 cm）上升显著（P<0.05）。伽师瓜出苗期和坐果期与5月最低气温呈显著正相关，成熟期分别与7、8月的5 cm地面温度呈显著负相关，全生育期与7、8月日照时数呈显著负相关。温度是影响伽师瓜发育期的关键因子，伽师瓜从播种到坐果期提前，成熟期推迟，全生育期延长。伽师瓜气象产量与≥10 ℃积温呈显著正相关，与4月降水量呈显著负相关。近39年来伽师县的气象条件基本满足伽师瓜的需求，但是生长季内日照时数偏少，对伽师瓜产量有不利影响，建议当地合理选择种植早、中熟品种。

关键词：气候变化;伽师瓜;发育期;气象产量

中图分类号：S652.1;S162.5+5      文献标识码：A      DOI 编码：10.3969/j.issn.1006-6500.2021.05.015

Abstract： In order to clarify the characteristics of climate change and its influence on development period and yield of Jiashi melon， the development period and yield data of Jiashi melon from 1981 to 2019 were selected. The variation characteristics of climatic factors during the growth season of Jiashi melon were revealed， such as temperature， precipitation， and sunshine hours.The Mann-Kendall mutation detection， climate tendency rate and correlation test were used to analyze the characteristics and its influence on development period and yield of Jiashi melon. The results showed that in the past 39 years， the average temperature and≥10 ℃ accumulative temperature increased significantly. The average temperature had a sudden change in 2000 and it rose by 1.0 ℃ before and after the sudden change.The≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature had a sudden change in 2002， and it increased by 333.75 ℃·d before and after the sudden change. During the growth period of Jiashi melon， the temperature， sunshine hours， precipitation and average ground temperature showed an upward trend， and the average relative humidity showed a decreasing trend. The maximum temperature， minimum temperature， average temperature and average ground temperature （5 cm） increased significantly （P<0.05）.The seedling period and fruit setting period of Jiashi melon were significantly positively correlated with the lowest temperature of May， the maturity period was significantly negatively correlated with the 5 cm ground temperature of July and August， the full growth period was significantly negatively correlated with the sunshine hours of July and August. Temperature was a important factor affecting the growth period of Jiashi melon. The period of Jiashi melon from seeding to fruit setting was advanced， the maturity period was delayed， and the whole growth period was extended. The meteorological production of Jiashi melon was significantly positively correlated with the≥10℃accumulated temperature， and was significantly negatively correlated with the precipitation of April. In the past 39 years， the climate conditions in Jiashi have meet the growth needs of Jiashi melons， but the sunshine hours during the growing period are relatively small， which has an negative effect on the growth of Jiashi melons. It is suggested that the early and mid-maturing varieties should be selected reasonably.

Key words： climate change; Jiashi melon; development period; meteorological yield

全球气候变暖背景下，近百年来中国年平均地表气温明显上升，气候呈暖干化趋势[1-2]。新疆从20世纪80年代中后期开始气候逐渐向增温、增湿方向发展[3-4]，南疆环塔里木盆地林果基地在2000年以后增温、增湿趋势显著。气候变暖背景下新疆极端天气、气候事件频发，对新疆的生态环境[5-7]、水文[8]以及种植结构[9-10]等方面产生了深远影响。研究发现，全疆气候暖湿化的变化趋势有利于林果产品产量的提高，但是气候出现异常波动变化时（急剧增温、增湿和减温、减湿）会造成林果产品产量降低[11]。前人[12-15]针对气候变化对农作物的影响做了大量工作，主要以小麦、水稻、玉米等大作物以及红枣、酿酒、苹果等林果为主。……