张筱娴 谭莹

摘要 在新冠肺炎疫情这一重大公共卫生事件背景下，研究疫情对食品价格的影响，有助于稳定农产品的供求。在收集广东、上海、浙江和河南4地的肉蛋及主食4类食品的价格日度数据以及疫情相关数据的基础上，建立FI-GARCH模型，探究新冠肺炎疫情对食品价格的影响，此外还构建GRNN模型对4地食品价格进行预测。结果表明：新冠肺炎疫情对各类食品的影响存在省际差异，上海、浙江的猪肉价格显著提高，4地的鸡蛋价格均有下降，其中上海下降最为明显，各地鸡肉价格整体上无明显波动，广东、上海和浙江大米价格出现上涨;GRNN模型对食物价格进行预测的精度较好，有助于主管部门提前感知风险并采用有效措施予以应对。基于模型估计结果，提出了相应的稳定农产品供求状况的政策建议。

关键词 新冠肺炎疫情;食物供应链;食物价格;FI-GARCH模型;GRNN模型

中图分类号 S-9-文献标识码 A

文章编号 0517-6611（2021）11-0205-11

doi：10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2021.11.055

开放科学（资源服务）标识码（OSID）：

Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic on Food Prices in China and Its Prediction—Analysis of Food Prices in Four Places

ZHANG Xiao-xian，TAN Ying

（College of Economics & Management，South China Agricultural University，Guangzhou，Guangdong 510642）

Abstract In the context of COVID-19 epidemic，the study of the impact of the epidemic on the food market will help to stabilize the supply and demand of agricultural products.Based on the daily price data of meat，eggs and staple food in Guangdong，Shanghai，Zhejiang and Henan，as well as epidemic related data，this paper establishes FI-GARCH model to explore the impact of epidemic on food prices，and constructs GRNN model to predict the food prices in the four regions.The results showed that：the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on various kinds of food is different among provinces.The pork prices in Shanghai and Zhejiang have increased significantly，and the egg prices in the four places have decreased，especially in Shanghai.There is no obvious fluctuation in chicken prices in all regions，and rice prices in Guangdong，Shanghai and Zhejiang have increased.GRNN model has a good prediction accuracy for food prices，which is helpful for the competent department to perceive the risk in advance and take effective measures to deal with it.Based on the results of the model estimation，this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations to stabilize the supply and demand of agricultural products.

Key words COVID-19 epidemic;Food supply chain;Food price;FI-GARCH model;GRNN model

新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）是由新型冠状病毒引起的严重呼吸道传染病，传染性强，目前已发展成为全球大流行病。新冠肺炎疫情的蔓延对各国的食品供应链造成了巨大冲击。世界粮农组织（FAO）指出，新冠肺炎疫情将对最脆弱社区或群体的食物安全造成严重威胁。在新冠肺炎疫情蔓延下，一些国家和地区脆弱的食物供应链承受不住冲击，食物需求很难得到满足，爆发严重的人道主义危机[1]。

疫情期间，多国政府相继发布居家隔离令或封城政策，食物的供给和消费均受到影响。……