摘  要：高速铁路的开通，极大缩短了沿线城市之间的时空距离，对城市间的交流发展产生了重要影响。文章选用2003～2016年中国278个地级市的面板数据，通过双重差分DID法分析了高铁开通对沿线城市人口规模的影响。研究发现：（1）高铁开通加快了沿线城市间要素流动、引致城市经济集聚，从而促进城市规模扩张。（2）高铁开通提高了城市服务业多样化发展，服务业GDP占比显著提高，服务业的快速发展带动了就业，进而促进了城市规模的扩张。（3）高铁开通对不同城市规模的影响存在异质性，高铁开通对中等城市人口规模扩张作用明显，对大型城市、小型城市结果不显著。

关键词：高铁开通;城市人口规模;经济集聚;服务业化

中图分类号：F570    文献标识码：A

Abstract： The opening of high-speed railways has greatly shortened the space-time distance between cities along the line， and has had an important impact on the development of communication between cities. This paper selects the panel data of 278 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2016， and analyzes the impact of the opening of high-speed rail on the population size of cities along the line through the double differential DID method. The study found that：（1）The opening of high-speed rail speeds up the flow of factors among cities along the route， leading to urban economic agglomeration， and thus promoting urban expansion. （2）The opening of the high-speed rail has increased the diversified development of the urban service industry， and the proportion of GDP in the service industry has increased significantly. The rapid development of the service industry has driven employment， which in turn promoted the expansion of the city.（3）The impact of the opening of high-speed rail on different cities is heterogeneous. The opening of the high-speed rail has a significant effect on the population expansion of medium-sized cities， but the effect on large and small cities is not significant.

Key words： high-speed rail opening; urban population size; economic agglomeration; service industrialization

0  引  言

近年來，中国城市发展迅速，截至2018年，中国城镇化率已达59.58%，城市经济在国民经济中占比达63%以上。然而，伴随着城市快速发展的同时也遇到了诸多问题，如城市人口发展不协调、产业结构不合理、综合交通基础水平较低、公共服务有待改善、城市经济集聚度不足等。《国家新型城镇化规划（2014～2020年）》指出，要进一步优化城镇布局，增强城市群集聚经济和人口的能力，促进区域协调发展。因此，如何合理调控城市人口规模、协调经济发展成为目前时代背景下面临的重要问题。

交通运输是经济发展活动所不可缺少的重要组成部分，它是城市经济发展的纽带。发达的交通运输设施能促进劳动力人口、资本要素流动（邓涛涛等，2017）。……