王广宁 张国鑫 崔日鲜

摘要 选取山东省境内17个气象站1986—2015年的逐日平均气温数据，采用线性倾向估计方法和空间插值方法，对山东省≥0 ℃终日和≥15 ℃终日的时间和其间的积温的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明：山东省≥0 ℃终日的空间分布呈现南部和沿海地区晚、中部和北部地区早的特征;近30年来山东省17个气象站点≥0 ℃终日的变化均未达到显著水平。山东省≥15 ℃终日的空间分布呈东部沿海地区晚、中部地区早的特征;近30年来山东省17个气象站点≥15 ℃终日的变化总体呈推迟趋势。山东省≥0 ℃终日至≥15 ℃终日期间活动积温的空间分布特征为西南地区高、东北地区低，呈现出由西南向东北逐渐降低的趋势;近30年来≥0 ℃终日至≥15 ℃终日期间活动积温变化均未达到显著水平。

关键词 ≥0 ℃终日;≥15 ℃终日;积温;时空变化特征;山东省

中图分类号 P423文献标识码 A

文章编号 0517-6611（2021）10-0198-04

doi：10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2021.10.051

开放科学（资源服务）标识码（OSID）：

Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of the End Date of ≥0℃ and ≥15℃ in Shandong Province

WANG Guang-ning， ZHANG Guo-xin， CUI Ri-xian （College of Agronomy， Qingdao Agricultural University，Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Dryland Farming Techniques， Qingdao，Shandong 266109）

Abstract The daily temperature data of 17 meteorological stations in Shandong Province from 1986 to 2015 were selected， and the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the end date of ≥ 0 ℃ and ≥ 15 ℃ in Shandong Province were analyzed by using linear regression analysis and spatial interpolation method. The results showed that the spatial distribution of the end date of ≥ 0 ℃ in Shandong Province was late in the southern and coastal areas， and early in the central and northern areas. In the past 30 years， the time series of the end date of ≥ 0 ℃ in 17 meteorological stations in Shandong Province did not reach a significant level. The spatial distribution of the end date of ≥ 15 ℃ in Shandong Province was late in the eastern coastal area and early in the central area. In the past 30 years， 17 meteorological stations in Shandong Province showed an overall trend of delaying the end date of ≥ 15 ℃. The spatial distribution of the accumulated temperature from the end date of ≥ 0 ℃ to the end date of ≥ 15 ℃ in Shandong Province were high in southwest and low in northeast， showing a decreasing trend from southwest to northeast. In the past 30 years， the trend of the accumulated temperature from the end date of ≥ 0 ℃ to the end date of ≥ 15 ℃ did not reach a significant level.

Key words End date of ≥ 0 ℃;End date of ≥ 15 ℃;Accumulated temperature;Spatial and temporal variation characteristics; Shandong Province

近100年（1906—2005年）地表溫度上升了0.74 ℃，近50年的线性增温速度为0.13 ℃/10 a[1]。在全球气候变化大背景下，近100年间我国地表温度的年平均值呈明显上升趋势，升幅比同期全球平均值略高[2]。气候变化改变了各地的农业气候资源[3]，并不可避免地给各地农业生产带来影响，而如何应对气候变化所带来的影响是农业科研和管理部门必须要解决的重要问题。

界限温度是具有一定生物学意义，且对农事活动具有指示意义的温度，可以反映一个地区的热量条件[4]。其中，界限温度0 ℃为早春作物开始播种、初冬季节冬小麦进入越冬和冬小麦开始返青等的指标[4-5];界限温度15 ℃为喜温作物积极生长、秋季冬小麦适宜播种的日期、玉米和水稻停止灌浆等的指标[4，6]。……