刘少军 佟金鹤 陈小敏 李伟光

摘  要：为准确评估不同橡胶树种植区的年产胶潜力的变化，根据2000—2015年遥感和气候数据，分别建立了橡胶产量气象影响指数和橡胶树气候适宜性指数序列，通过统计分析和利用ArcGIS空间分析功能，研发了基于年综合气候适宜度指数的橡胶树产胶年景评估模型，模型空间分辨率1 km×1 km，实现了橡胶树种植区产胶潜力精细化评估，克服了传统意义上依靠单站数据预测橡胶产胶年景的缺陷。结果表明：该模型实现了依靠气候数据客观、定量预测种植区橡胶树在不同区域的年产胶能力变化，能从宏观上区分不同区域的差异，为橡胶树精细化气象决策服务提供技术支撑。

关键词：气候适宜度;产胶潜力;预测模型;橡胶树

中图分类号：P49;S794.1      文献标识码：A

Prediction Model of Annual Rubber Potential Productivity Based on Climatic Suitability

LIU Shaojun， TONG Jinhe， CHEN Xiaomin， LI Weiguang

Hainan Institute of Meteorological Science / Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province， Haikou， Hainan 570203， China

Abstract： In order to accurately evaluate the change of rubber potential productivity in the rubber tree planting areas， the meteorological impact index of rubber production and rubber tree climatic suitability index were established respectively based on the remote sensing and climate data from 2000 to 2015. Prediction model of annual rubber potential productivity based on climatic suitability was developed by the statistical analysis and ArcGIS spatial analysis function， the spatial resolution of the model was 1 km × 1 km， which realized the refined evaluation of rubber potential productivity， and overcome the defect of relying on single station data to predict rubber productivity. The results showed that the model can objectively and quantitatively predict the rubber production capacity in different regions based on climate data， and can distinguish the differences in study regions from a macro perspective， which can provide the rubber refinement meteorological decision-making service.

Keywords： climatic suitability; potential productivity; prediction model; Hevea brasiliensis

DOI： 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2561.2021.04.035

天然橡膠是我国热带地区重要支柱产业，气候因子是影响橡胶树种植及产量的关键因素之一[1-2]，橡胶生产易受气候变化的影响，因此在中国橡胶树主产区开展及时、准确、动态的橡胶产量预报工作，对保障橡胶生产、进出口贸易等具有重要意义。国内外学者在作物产量预报方面已有大量研究成果，作物产量预报大致经历根据气象数据和产量进行数理统计预报、综合考虑作物生理生态特征的动态产量预报、综合考虑光-温-水对作物生产影响的气候适宜度指数的产量预报等[3-4]。其中根据气候适宜指数建立的作物产量预报模型有：冬小麦气候适宜度动态模型[5-9]、玉米……