胡洵瑀 王斌 张爱英

摘 要：以鄱阳湖流域1961—2019年25个气象站点的逐日气象数据，结合14个早稻站点、13个晚稻站点和12个油菜站点的物候期数据，分析了近60年鄱阳湖流域主要作物生长季昼夜温度和降水的时空变化特征。结果显示：（1）鄱阳湖流域近60年年平均温度升高了0.20℃/10a，夜间增温0.25℃/10a，白天增温0.17℃/10a;年降水量增加了58.60mm/10a，白天和夜间年降水增量相当。（2）早稻生长季平均温度升高了0.24℃/10a，白天和夜间增温幅度相近。（3）晚稻生长季平均温度升高了0.16℃/10a，夜间增温主要发生在晚稻移栽后。（4）油菜生长季平均温度升高了0.29℃/10a，夜间温度增幅大于白天;50%的站点油菜生长季降水量增加33.42mm/10a。研究结果为鄱阳湖流域生态系统和农业生产应对气候变化提供了科学依据。

关键词：昼夜温度;降水;时空变化;作物生长季;鄱阳湖流域

中图分类号 S161.2;S161.6文献标识码 A文章编号 1007-7731（2021）06-0152-09

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Daytime/Nighttime Temperature and Precipitation During Crop Growing Season in Poyang Lake Basin in Recent 60 Years and Their Impacts on Agricultural Production

HU Xunyu1 et al.

（1East China Inventory and Planning Institute， National Forestry and Grassland Administration， Hangzhou 310019， China）

Abstract： Based on the daily meteorological data of 25 meteorological stations in Poyang Lake Basin from 1961 to 2019， combined with the phenological data of 14 early rice stations， 13 late rice stations， 12 rapeseed stations， the temporal and spatial characteristics of daytime/nighttime temperature and precipitation in the growing season of the main crops were analyzed. The results showed that： （1） the mean temperature in Poyang Lake Basin increased by 0.20℃/10a. Daytime and nighttime temperature increased by 0.17℃/10a and 0.25℃/10a， respectively. The precipitation increased by 58.60mm/10a. The increments of precipitation in daytime and nighttime were equal. （2） The mean temperature during early rice growing season increased by 0.24℃/10a. The increase range of daytime and nighttime was similar. （3） The mean temperature increased by 0.16℃/10a during the growing season of late rice. The increase of nighttime temperature mainly occurred after the transplanting date. （4） During the rapeseed growing season， the mean temperature increased by 0.29℃/10a. The increasing range of nighttime temperature was more than that in the daytime. The precipitation increased by 33.42mm/10a. The results provide a scientific basis for the ecosystem and agriculture production of Poyang Lake Basin to cope with climate change.

Key words： Daytime/nighttime temperature;Precipitation;Spatial and temporal characteristics;Crop growing seasons;Poyang lake basin

鄱陽湖是我国第一大淡水湖，鄱阳湖流域约占长江流域面积的9%，其湿地生态系统发挥着巨大的生态服务功能[1-2]。鄱阳湖流域也是我国九大商品粮基地之一，主要种植制度为冬油菜—双季稻一年三熟制或双季稻一年两熟制，保障该地的粮食产量对维护我国粮食安全具有重要作用。

1880—2012年全球地表温度升高了0.85℃[3]，气候变化已成为不争的事实。近年来，鄱阳湖流域温度升高[4]，极端降水强度增加[5]而天数减少[6]，风速降低[7]，参考作物蒸散量下降[8]，气候变化导致鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件多发[9]。全球气候变化多表现为非均衡型，季节、地域差异较大，昼夜非对称增温、降水变化也已在多地得到证实[10-13]。……