王敏 王庆莉 易兰 刘小波 钟华剑 刘成刚

摘 要：采用相关线性回归分析法对雅砻江流域（甘孜州段）近30年降水、气温、日照等气象要素时空变化进行研究。结果表明：雅砻江流域年降水量呈增加趋势，秋季降水量增加显著;平均温度呈极显著上升趋势，春季气温变化平稳，其余季节均升高;年、季日照时数变化不明显;年相对湿度呈下降趋势，夏季平均相对湿度变化不明显，春、秋、冬季则显著下降;年平均蒸发量呈减少趋势，除冬季趋于递增外，春、夏、秋季均为下降趋势;总体上雅砻江流域表现为雨热同季。

关键词：雅砻江流域;降水;气温;日照时数;回归分析法

中图分类号：P467 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1003-5168（2021）34-0-04

Study on the Characteristics of Climate Change in Ecological Region

Yalong River Basin

WANG Min WANG Qingli YI Lan LIU Xiaobo ZHONG Huajian LIU Chenggang

（Ganzi Meteorological Office， Kangding Sichuan 626000）

Abstract： The temporal and spatial changes of meteorological elements such as precipitation， temperature and sunshine in Yalong River Basin （Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture Section） in recent 30 years were studied by correlation linear regression analysis. The results show that the annual precipitation in Yalong River Basin  increases， and the precipitation in autumn increases significantly; the average temperature showed a very significant upward trend， the temperature changed steadily in spring and increased in other seasons; annual and seasonal sunshine hours did not change significantly; the annual relative humidity showed a downward trend， the average relative humidity in summer did not change significantly， and tended to decrease significantly in spring， autumn and winter; the annual average evaporation showed a decreasing trend. Except that it tended to increase in winter， it decreased in spring， summer and autumn; on the whole， the Yalong River Basin  shows the same season of rain and heat.

Keywords： Yalong River Basin;precipitation;temperature;sunshine hours;regression analysis

青藏高原氣候复杂多变，是全球气候变化最敏感的区域之一。高耸的地形造就其独有的动力和热力特征，这对我国乃至全球气候都有显著影响[1-4]。雅砻江流域是我国重要的水电能源基地。在全球气候变化背景下，研究雅砻江流域气候变化规律具有重要意义。

雅砻江发源于青海省巴颜喀拉山南麓，位于96°52′—102°48′E、26°32′—33°58′N，地处青藏高原东部、四川省西部，是金沙江最大的支流，流域整体上呈南北向条带状，纬度跨度及地势高差大，地形变化复杂。雅砻江干流长1 571 km，流域面积为12.8 万km，占长江流域面积的7.1%。雅砻江（甘孜州段）总长1 019.44 km，起点为石渠县呷衣乡，流经德格、甘孜、新龙、理塘、雅江、康定，在九龙县三岩龙乡田埂村出甘孜州境，是金沙江最大支流。年径流量约为316.2亿m，流域面积约9万km。

雅砻江径流由降水、地下水和融雪水组成，水利资源丰富，是南水北调西线工程水源池。……