田绍君

摘要：2021年3月，一艘大型集装箱货轮搁浅苏伊士运河，造成运河关闭一周，进而引发多国供应链短期中断以及原材料物资价格波动。这一事件的发生，给世界主要贸易国敲响了警钟，世界贸易航线存在诸多不稳定因素，航线随时可能中断，进而产生严重的后果。中国作为世界贸易的重要参与方，贸易航线的稳定事关国家的安全和发展，随着中国不断增长的贸易需求，开辟多条贸易路线、多种运输形式，保障中国同世界各国贸易的通畅，是中国未来发展的必要条件。当前，由于科技的进步以及北极地区气候环境的变化，该地区具有的航行路线、能源物资等资源，已经初步具备了开发和利用的条件。对于北极地区的开发，一方面要积极合理的参与，另一方面也要做好自身软硬件的准备。

关键词：北极航道  北极开发  SWOT  形势分析  北极策略  极地科考装备

From the Clogging of the Suez Canal to Arctic Development

TIAN Shaojun

（China National Nuclear Power Co.， Ltd.， Shanghai， 200030  China）

Abstract：In March 2021， a large container ship ran aground in the Suez Canal， causing the canal to close for a week， triggering short-term disruptions to supply chains in many countries and fluctuating prices for raw materials. The occurrence of this incident sounded the alarm to the world's major trading countries， there are many unstable factors in the world trade route， the route may be interrupted at any time， and then have serious consequences. As an important participant in world trade， the stability of trade routes is related to national security and development. With China's growing trade demand， it is necessary for China's future development to open up multiple trade routes and various transportation forms to ensure the smooth trade between China and the rest of the world. At present， due to advances in technology as well as changes in the climate of the Arctic， the region has preliminary conditions for development and utilization of sea-route， energy supplies and other resources. As for the development of the Arctic region， on the one hand， we should actively and reasonably participate in it; on the other hand， we should also make good preparations for our own hardware and software.

Key Words： Arctic passage; Arctic development; SWOT;Situation analysis; Arctic strategy; Polar research equipment

1   引言-蘇伊士运河拥堵的警示

2021年3月23日，长赐号集装箱货轮横向搁浅在苏伊士运河，将运河拦腰截断，造成400多艘货船拥堵在苏伊士运河上下游两端，无法通行，在经过一周左右的挖掘、拖曳，终于将货船摆正，拥堵的船舶经过3-4天的纾解，才逐步恢复了运河的正常通行。

苏伊士运河的拥堵，给全球贸易带来了60-100亿美元的损失，约1900万吨的货物延迟交付8-9天，造成全球供应链的短期混乱和石油等原材料价格的波动。

图（1）是中国与其他国家海上贸易的主要航线图：航线中“咽喉要道”的稳定，关系到贸易运输的安全，其中箭头所指位置即为本次发生堵塞的苏伊士运河，80%的欧亚货运需要途经苏伊士运河，该航段是中欧货运的必经之路。……