孔祥芬 王杰 刘敬赟 唐淑珍 赵安利

摘  要：偶發性拥堵因其在发生时间和位置上的不确定性，更容易通过拥堵传播引发路网的级联失效。为了研究偶发性拥堵在机场陆侧道路交通系统中的影响，结合北京首都国际机场T3航站楼陆侧道路交通网络，以进出T3航站楼的交通需求和拥堵持续时间为变量，仿真分析机场陆侧道路交通网络的级联失效过程。在此基础上，以道路饱和度为依据，对偶发性拥堵在整个路网中的影响范围以及影响范围内各路段受拥堵事件的影响程度进行研究。结果表明，随着交通需求的增加，偶发性拥堵在路网中的影响范围有所增大，且更早地发生了相继失效;随着拥堵持续时间的增加，偶发性拥堵在路网中的影响范围先逐渐增大后趋向稳定，且在较低交通需求下，该影响范围更早稳定下来。明确偶发性拥堵在机场陆侧道路交通网络中的影响范围，对影响范围内各路段的影响程度进行划分，更加精细地描述了了路网中各路段和初始拥堵路段之间的强弱关系。

关键词：交通工程 偶发性拥堵 级联失效机场陆侧交通影响范围

中图分类号：U491文献标志码：A

Influence of Occasional Congestion on Airport Landside Road Based on Cascading Failure

KONGXiangfen*1WANGJie2  LIU Jingyun2  TANG Shuzhen2

ZHAO Anli2

（1.School ofTransportation Science and Engineering， Civil Aviation University of China， Tianjin， 300300 China; 2.School of Aeronautical Engineering， Civil Aviation University of China， Tianjin， 300300 China）

Abstract： Due to the uncertainty of occurrence time and location， sporadic congestion is more likely to cause cascade failure of road network through congestion propagation.In order to study the influence of occasional congestion on the airport's landside road traffic system， combined with the landside road traffic network of the Terminal 3 of Beijing Capital International Airport， taking the traffic demand in/out of the Terminal 3 and the congestion duration as variables， simulated and analyzed the cascading failure process of the airport's landside road traffic network.On this base， based on the road saturation， the influence scope of the occasional congestion in the entire road network and the level of influence of each road section within the influence scope by the congestion event are studied. The results show that with the increase of traffic demand， the influence range of occasional congestion in the road network increases， and the successive failures occur earlier. With the increase of the duration of congestion， the influence range of occasional congestion in the road network gradually increases first and then tends to be stable， and under the lower traffic demand， the influence range stabilizes earlier. The scope of influence of accidental congestion on the airport land-side road traffic network is clarified， the degree of influence of each road section within the scope is divided， and the strong and weak relationship between each road section in the road network and the initial congested road section is described in a more detailed way.

Key Words：Traffic Engineering; Occasional congestion; Cascading failure; Airport landside transportation; Influence scope

“十四五”时期，我国正不断推进综合交通运输体系发展，加快现代化交通强国建设[1]。机场陆侧道路交通系统作为衔接城市交通和机场空侧的纽带，其有效运行是持续提升综合交通运输协同运行效率的重要保障。随着社会车辆保有量和民航旅客周转量的逐年增加，机场陆侧道路交通拥堵现象频繁发生[2]。……