王顺 刘春林 李利荣

摘 要：内蒙古自治区水资源分布不均严重制约了区域经济发展，各地区节水改造效果差异较大，全面系统地评价节水改造效果并提出合理方案，可为该地区水资源管理提供科学依据。针对内蒙古12个盟（市）的8项节水改造项目指标，采用主成分分析法从不同角度综合评价各盟（市）节水改造的效果，并结合水利普查报告给出节水改造建议。结果表明：通辽市的节水改造效益最好，赤峰市和呼和浩特市次之，阿拉善盟和乌海市的节水改造效益最差。该评价结果与实际情况相符，表明基于主成分分析法的评价结果具有可信度。

關键词：主成分分析法;节水改造;评价指标;内蒙古自治区

中图分类号：S275 文献标志码：A

doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2020.02.033

Abstract：The uneven distribution of water resources in the Inner Mongolia region has been seriously restricted the economic development， and there is a larger difference in water-saving renovation among the different regions. Comprehensive and systematic evaluation of water-saving renovation effect and putting forward a reasonable project for this region can provide scientific basis for water resources management in this area. In this study， 8 water-saving renovation indexes of 12 cities in Inner Mongolia were evaluated by using principal components analytical method from a different point of view and combined with the water conservancy survey report it gave out the future recommendations for water conservation. The results indicate that the water-saving renovation benefits effect of Tongliao City is the best， Chifeng and Hohhot take second place and Alashan and Wuhai are the worst. The evaluation is in line with the actual situation， showing the assessment results based on the principal components analytical method is reliable.

Key words： principal components analytical method; water-saving renovation; evaluation index; Inner Mongolia

内蒙古自治区横跨中国东北、华北、西北三大地区，水资源总量占全国的1.86%，水资源在区域、年际和季节上的分布不均，使得水资源短缺一定程度上成为制约内蒙古大部分地区经济发展的主要瓶颈[1]。近几年来，无论是内蒙古的水资源规划还是水利普查报告，都为该地区的节水改造项目指明了方向，然而如何利用少数或有代表性的指标来综合评价节水改造后的经济、社会和生态效益，将是今后研究的重点。目前，有关节水改造效益评价的方法有人工神经网络法[2]、灰色关联法[3]、离差平方和综合赋权法[4]、模糊评价法[5]和层次分析-蚁群算法[6]等。这些评价方法均能较好地应用于效益评价，但仍存在一些问题，如人工神经网络法和灰色关联法的计算过程复杂，难以在实践中应用;模糊算法不能将现实需要的突出指标明显体现出来;层次分析法的评价指标主观因素影响太大[7]。……