高嵩 刘畅

摘要：为推进水路客运市场转型升级，协调客运需求与疏运能力，基于普陀山水路客运实际情况，分析客運航线承载力的逻辑框架，确立承载力计算数学模型。通过优化码头作业流程，模拟最大靠离泊次数，确定码头极限承载力;结合船期表，计算船舶饱和数量，确定船舶经济承载力;考虑乘客候船面积和候船时间因素，创新提出舒适因子，优化船舶运输周期，确定乘客舒适承载力。模拟结果表明：高峰期客运量已逼近码头极限承载力，超过船舶经济承载力，远高于乘客舒适承载力，普陀山水路客运供给矛盾亟待优化调控。研究可为客运行业评判最大承载力提供技术支撑，为市场主体有序管理、经营提供决策参考。

关键词： 水路客运; 航线承载力; 码头疏运能力; 配船数量; 乘客舒适度; 大客流

中图分类号： U695.1; U692.3    文献标志码： A

Analysis on maximum carrying capacity of Mount

Putuo passenger transport waterways

GAO Song， LIU Chang

（China Waterborne Transport Research Institute， Ministry of Transport， Beijing 100088， China）

Abstract： To promote the transformation and upgrading of waterway passenger transport market and coordinate the passenger transport demand and distribution capacity， the carrying capacity logical framework of passenger transport waterways is analyzed and a mathematical model for calculating the carrying capacity is established based on the actual status of Mount Putuo waterway passenger transport. The extreme carrying capacity of terminals can be derived by optimizing the operation process of terminals and simulating the maximum berthing times. Combined with shipping schedule， the ship economic carrying capacity can be derived by calculating the saturated quantity of ships. Considering the factors of waiting area and waiting time of passengers， a comfort factor is added innovatively to calculate the passenger comfort carrying capacity and optimize the ship transport cycle. Simulation results show that the passenger flow is approaching the extreme carrying capacity of terminals during the peak time， exceeding the ship economic carrying capacity， and far more than the passenger comfort carrying capacity. The contradiction between demand and supply of Mount Putuo waterway passenger transport needs to be optimized and controlled urgently. The research can provide technical support for the passenger transport industry to judge the maximum carrying capacity， and provide decision-making reference for the orderly management and operation of the main body of the market.

Key words： waterway passenger transport; waterway carrying capacity; terminal distributing capacity; number of ships allocated; passenger comfort; large passenger flow

0 引 言

近年来，普陀山旅游知名度不断提升，伴随佛教文化旅游的内在需求和节日朝拜的常态需要，来山游客数量持续保持高位增长，进出口客流量从2014年的1 174万人次增长到2018年的1 465万人次，年均增幅5.7%。作为舟山市内最重要的涉旅航线以及进出普陀山的交通主动脉，普陀山—朱家尖航线客流量增长态势更加明显，从2014年的828万人次增长到2018年的1 219万人次，年均增幅高达10.2%;特别在重要节假日会迎来客流高峰，如2019年正月初三进出岛客流量突破18万人次，较2015年增长27%，再创峰值纪录，疏运压力与日俱增[1]。虽然行业主体已经积极落实了多项运输保障举措，但大客流压力不断挑战着客运航线承载力和疏运极限，存在着一定的安全风险和隐患，已成为普陀山水路客运发展瓶颈。……