曹璐　高苹　吴洪颜

摘要 根据小麦赤霉病的发生特点和灾害风险分析理论，确定小麦赤霉病综合风险评估指标。本文利用江苏省1961年-2017年67个气象站气象数据和农业统计资料，结合地理信息和土壤数据构建了综合风险评估模型，基于GIS空间分析技术将江苏省划分为小麦赤霉病发生低风险区、中等风险区、高风险区和极高风险区。结果表明：江苏省小麦赤霉病的高风险区位于淮河以南地区，其中里下河和沿江东部赤霉病流行风险最高，需加强预防和治理。

关键词 小麦赤霉病; 气候条件; 风险区划; 应灾能力

中图分类号：

S 435.121.45

文献标识码： A

DOI： 10.16688/j.zwbh.2019216

Multi-factor comprehensive risk assessment and zoning map of wheat scab epidemics in Jiangsu province

CAO Lu， GAO Ping， WU Hongyan*

（Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Bureau， Nanjing 210008， China）

Abstract

Based on the characteristics of wheat scab occurrence and the theory of disaster risk analysis， a set of comprehensive risk indexes of wheat scab were derived. In this study， we used meteorological and agricultural statistics datasets of 67 stations in Jiangsu province from 1961 to 2017， combined with geographic information and soil data， to construct a comprehensive risk assessment model. With GIS spatial analysis technology， four zones， i.e.， low-risk， medium-risk， high-risk and very-high-risk zones for wheat scab in Jiangsu， were differentiated according to the assessment model. The results showed that the high-risk areas of wheat scab in Jiangsu were located in the south of Huaihe River， and the risk of wheat scab was the highest in Lixia River and the eastern part of the Yangtze River， where the prevention and management of wheat scad need to be strengthened.

Key words

wheat scab; meteorological conditions; risk zoning; disaster-bearing capability

江苏是小麦赤霉病的常发区和重发区，流行频率高、感染程度重，近年来，还有向北蔓延的趋势[1]。被赤霉病感染后的小麦不仅大幅减产，还可产生脱氧雪腐镰刀菌烯醇（DON）等毒素沉积于籽粒中，严重威胁着江苏的粮食安全生产。小麦对赤霉病的抗性是由多基因控制的，目前国内尚无绝对的抗赤霉病品种。为更好地防治赤霉病，许多学者从赤霉病发生和防治实践出发，不仅分析了栽培管理、菌源量、品种差异、防治措施及气象条件等多种成因[2-5]，还采用多种统计方法，建立赤霉病发生程度和流行趋势的预报方法[6-12]。此外，也有学者对小麦赤霉病进行了多方位的气候分区，并取得了一些研究成果，分区界线也与实况基本吻合。赵圣菊等[13]通过收集我国冬、春麦区气象资料， 结合暖雨日日数及出现频率确定了赤霉……