张亚明 杜翠翠 苏妍嫄

摘 要：[目的/意义]网络空间舆情传播成为关乎经济社会发展甚至国家安全的重大问题，“把握好网上舆论引导的时、度、效，使网络空间清朗起来”，是网络媒体和政府的重大责任与担当。[方法/过程]在仅考虑媒体干预的SIR模型和仅考虑政府干预的SEIR模型基础上，将网络媒体的干预影响抽象为网络媒体强化度、网络媒体分歧度及网络媒体渗透率，政府的干预作用抽象为政府干预系数，提出一种新型的SHIsIoR多主体干预模型。[结果/结论]仿真实验表明：1）网络舆情在多主体干预作用下治理效果更佳;2）网络媒体分歧度以及政府干预系数均对网络舆情传播影响显著。网络舆情治理应着重降低话题分歧，加速大众群体向免疫人群转化的概率。

关键词：网络舆情;多主体干预;SHIsIoR模型;政府干预系数;网络媒体分歧度

DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1008-0821.2020.05.016

〔中图分类号〕G206.2 〔文献标识码〕A 〔文章编号〕1008-0821（2020）05-0130-10

The Model and Simulation of Internet Public Opinion

Dissemination Under Multi-agent Intervention

Zhang Yaming1，2 Du Cuicui1 Su Yanyuan1，2

（1.School of Economics and Management，Yanshan University，Qinhuangdao 066004，China;

2.Research Center of Internet Plus and Industry Development of Yanshan University，

Qinhuangdao 066004，China）

Abstract：[Purpose/Significance]The dissemination of public opinion in cyberspace has become a major issue related to economic and social development and even national security，and it is the great responsibility of the Internet media and the government to“grasp the time，degree and effect of the guidance of online public opinion，and make cyberspace clear”.[Method/Process]Based on the SIR model which only considers media intervention and the SEIR model which only considers government intervention，a new model named SHIsIoR under the multi-agent intervention was proposed，and expressed the impact of Internet media with the concept of Internet Media Enhanced Degree，Internet Divergence and Internet Permeability.in addition，Government intervention coefficient expressed the impact of the government.[Result/Conclusion]The simulation experiments showed that：1）Internet public opinion had the better effect on governance under the multi-agent intervention;2）The degree of Internet media divergence and Government intervention coefficient had a significant impact on the spread of Internet public opinion.Accordingly，Internet public opinion governance should focus on reducing the differences on topics and on accelarating the probability of mass conversion to immune population.

Key words：internet public opinion;multi-agent intervention;SHIsIoR model;government intervention coefficient;internet media divergence

網络空间舆情传播成为关乎经济社会发展甚至国家安全的重大问题，“把握好网上舆论引导的时、度、效，使网络空间清朗起来”[1]，是网络媒体和政府的重大责任与担当。近年来，舆情事件频繁发生，网络舆情的影响力不容小觑，如2015年“天津大爆炸”事件、“青岛天价虾”事件、2017年“携程亲子园虐童”事件、“李文星”事件、2018年“郑州空姐打车遇害”事件、“乐青滴滴顺风车命案”事件等等[2]。这些网络舆情事件均有表达快捷、信息多元、传播迅速、影响广泛、方式互动的特点，突发事件网络舆情更有移动性与膨胀性等特征[3]。……