何毅 李斌 普轶

摘  要： 松散回潮是烟草生产的关键环节，通过影响烟丝的含水率，进而决定烟丝的品质和口感。目前松散回潮的产品质量控制面临着工艺复杂、变量众多和产品要求高等多个挑战，需要用更精准的方法提升烟丝出料含水率的预测控制。本文介绍了一种基于梯度提升树方法的烟草回潮机出料含水率预测方法，可应用到回潮机的加水量和加湿量的控制中，能提高制丝阶段烟丝含水率的稳定性，从而提高烟丝的品质和口感。该模型以历史数据中的入口水分、热风温度、工艺流量、不同批次和牌号的产品信息为输入，综合考虑生产因素和环境因素的影响，实现了回潮机的出料含水率预测，满足了工艺生产要求。模型具有处理非线性问题的能力，提高了含水率的预测精度，满足了常用的统计学评估指标，并实现了自学习能力，可改善对烟丝含水率的控制并提升烟丝的品质。

关键词： 预测;回潮;出料含水率;梯度提升树

中图分类号： TP273    文献标识码： A    DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1003-6970.2020.06.032

本文著录格式：何毅，李斌，普轶，等. 基于梯度提升树的烟草回潮机出料含水率预测[J]. 软件，2020，41（06）：151157

【Abstract】： The loose moisture regain is a crucial process in tobacco production， which determines the moisture ratio of tobacco， with a great effect on the quality and savour of tobacco. At present， the product quality control of loose moisture regain faces many challenges， such as process complexity， a large number of variables and high product requirements. Therefore， it is necessary to increase the prediction accuracy of tobacco thread moisture ratio at machine outlet. This paper introduces a gradient boosting decision tree （GBDT） method to predict outlet moisture ratio of tobacco moisture regain machine， which can be applied to the control of outlet moisture and water flow rate. This method effectively improved the stability of moisture ratio of tobacco at the thread making stage， so as the quality and flavor of tobacco. This prediction took inputs from historical data， including inlet moisture， hot air temperature， craft flow， product information of different batches and brands， which integrated environmental and manufacturing effect. The craft requirements were used to evaluate prediction accuracy of outlet moisture ratio. The method can deal with nonlinear problems， and reach a high prediction accuracy. The method also satisfies statistical evaluation indexes and embodies self-learning capability， so the control of moisture ratio and quality of tobacco can be improved.

【Key words】： Prediction; Moisture regain; Outlet moisture ratio; Gradient boosting decision trees

0  引言

在烟草生产各环节中，制丝生产是对卷烟品质起决定作用的关键环节，其中烟丝回潮环节的水分控制，包括加水量和热风温度，直接对其后续的烘丝和制丝环节的品质控制起重要影响 [1]。作为关键制丝工艺，回潮过程直接影响了挥发性成分的释放量和致香成分的释放总量[2]，对氯含量、糖碱比，钾氯比和氮碱比等均有较大的影响[3]。……