罗海平 潘柳欣 宋焱 王新悦

摘要：区域的粮食生产与生态价值存在相互促进和制约的特殊关系。本研究基于生态系统服务价值ESV范式构建了生态农业协调度EAH模型，进而对中国粮食主产区（河北、内蒙古辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、江苏、安徽、江西、山东、河南、湖北、湖南、四川）粮食生产与生态环境的协调性进行实证研究和预警预测。研究发现，2017年中国粮食主产区总体协调度为1.27，处于中度协調水平，粮食主产区农业-生态协调性较差，错位现象较为严重。从动态属性看，研究期间农业-生态协调性形成了以2013年为拐点的倒U型趋势，当前粮食生产与生态服务价值协调性逐年下降，灰色系统GM（1，1）预测显示，相比2011-2017年，2019-2025年农业-生态协调性呈逐渐弱化趋势。从空间属性看，粮食生产与生态服务价值存在较为突出的地理空间分异和不协调现象。

关键词：生态系统服务价值;粮食安全;协调度

中图分类号：X826文献标识码：A文章编号：1000-4440（2020）03-0760-09

Measurement and warning of agro-ecological coordination in China′s major grain-producing areas based on ecosystem service value

LUO Hai-ping1，PAN Liu-xin1，SONG Yan1，WANG Xin-yue2

（1.Research Center of Central China Economic and Social Development， Nanchang University， Nanchang 330027，China;2.School of Management， Sichuan Agricultural University， Chengdu 611100， China）

Abstract：There is a special relationship between regional food production and ecological value. Based on the paradigm of ecosystem service value （ESV）， an ecological agriculture coordination degree model was constructed， and then the coordination between food production and ecological environment in major grain-producing areas（Hebei， Inner Mongolia， Liaoning， Jilin， Heilongjiang， Jiangsu， Anhui， Jiangxi， Shandong， Henan， Hubei， Hunan， Sichuan） was studied and predicted. The results showed that the overall coordination degree of China′s major grain-producing areas was 1.27 in 2017， which was at the level of moderate coordination. The agro-ecdogical coordination in major grain-producing areas was poor， and the dislocation was serious. From the perspective of dynamic attributes， the agro-ecological coordination during the study period formed an inverted U-shaped trend with 2013 as the inflection point. The coordination between current food production and ecological service value was declining year by year. The gray system GM（1，1） prediction results showed that the coordination in 2019-2025 was gradually weakening compared with that in 2011-2017. From the perspective of spatial attributes， the value of food production and ecological service was not coordinated in geographic space.

Key words：ecosystem service value;food security;coordination degree

中国作为农业大国，同时也是全球第一粮食消费大国，2018年中国的年粮食进口量为1.08×108 t。党的十九大报告提出：“要确保国家粮食安全，把中国人的饭碗牢牢端在自己手中。”但随着自然、人为等多种原因导致生态环境恶化，生态问题成为影响和制约粮食安全问题的重要因素。农业生态安全是粮食安全的基础和支撑。粮食安全与生态安全协调性的研究随着对二者内涵与关系认识的深入而逐步深入。

（1）概念内涵上粮食安全与生态安全的一致性研究。……