严华 晏中文

摘要    利用新源国家一般气象站1981—2017年杏花花期记录资料及同期气象要素资料，采用相关系数计算、气候趋势系数、检验方法、逐步回归等统计方法，研究杏花花期特点及影响因子。结果表明，杏花平均始花期为4月8日（闰年为4月7日），始花期以2.6 d/10 a的速度显著性提前，杏花花期基本在3～16 d之间;杏花始花期主要受气温影响，其次是日照，与降水相关性不显著，与当年3月温度和日照时数相关性最显著;0 ℃初日对杏花始期的预测可以作定性分析。据此建立了线性回归方程对杏花始花期预测。

关键词    杏花;始花期;预报模型;新疆新源

中图分类号    S662.2        文献标识码    A

文章编号   1007-5739（2020）11-0054-03       开放科学（资源服务）标识码（OSID）

Study  on  Prediction  Model  of  First-flowering  Dates  of  Apricot  in  Xinyuan  County

YAN Hua    YAN Zhong-wen

（Xinyuan Meteorological Bureau，Xinyuan Xinjiang 835800）

Abstract    Based on the records of apricot flowering period in Xinyuan National General Meteorological Station from 1981 to 2017 and the data of meteorological elements in the same period，the characteristics of apricot flowering period and its influencing factors were studied by using statistical methods such as correlation coefficient calculation，climatic trend coefficient，test method and stepwise regression.The results showed that the average first-flowering date of apricot was April 8（April 7 in leap years），which was significantly advanced by 2.6 d/10 a，and the flowering period of apricot was basically 3-16 days.The first-flowering date of apricot was mainly affected by temperature，followed by sunshine，which had no significant linear correlation with precipitation.The correlation between the first-flowering date of apricot and the temperature and sunshine in March of the same year was the most significant.First day at 0 ℃ can be used for qualitative analysis of the first-flowering date of apricot.Based on this，a linear regression equation was established to predict the first-flowering date of apricot.

Key words    apricot flower;first-flowering date;prediction model;Xinyuan Xinjiang

隨着生活水平不断提高，旅游业快速发展，赏花已成为人们喜爱的旅游项目之一。各地政府也举办了具有地方特色的赏花节，如云南“油菜花节”、金华“茶花节”、绍兴“兰花节”、成都“郁金香节”、绵竹“梨花节”等。赏花节既可以增加地方收入、促进经济发展，又增添了生活情趣，但植物花期早晚不一、有长有短，所以准确的花期预报利于人们出行安排，对赏花节的举办非常重要。很多学者对不同植物的花期做过研究，并在此基础上建立了花期预报模型[1-4]。

新疆地域辽阔、地形复杂，伊犁被誉为“塞外江南”，地处伊犁河谷东部的新源县是一颗璀璨的“草原明珠”。新源县总面积9 970 km2，年平均气温9.3 ℃，年降水量526.4 mm，年总日照时数2 752.0 h，降水丰沛，日光充裕，属于温带大陆半干旱气候。杏花谷位于……